Biomethane can be injected directly into both TSO and DSO networks as a renewable and locally produced alternative to natural gas. It can thus bring a significant contribution, alongside renewable hydrogen and other technologies, to decarbonise nearly 80% of the EU’s gas production by 2030 and to achieve complete decarbonisation by 2050. For instance, the role of biomethane in decarbonisation of flexible thermal power generation, necessary for system reliability, is achieved by switching from fossil fuels like natural gas or coal.
Biomethane further contributes to security of supply of the European energy system by compensating for part of the declining national natural gas production, including in underground storages, especially during peak demand situations or periods of low renewable energy generation. These are likely to occur more often and more intensely in future, in proportion to growing variable RES capacities.
ENTSOG’s Natural Gas System Assessment report includes a Supply Adequacy Outlook, containing a biomethane progress report, which monitors evolution compared to the biomethane targets as outlined in the REPowerEU Plan.
The biomethane progress report shows that:
- Biomethane production has grown at a strong pace in recent years, but perspectives on future progress differ. While the current trajectory in the NT+ scenario indicates biomethane potential 5 bcm above the REPowerEU target of 35 bcm by 2030, the recently published 2024 Investment Outlook of the European Biogas Association (EBA) presents much lower figures, close to 11 bcm. It must however be noted that methodology, assumptions and underlying data used for the estimations differ.
- Market and regulatory support is seen as key to unlock the full potential of biomethane and other renewable gases, so that their benefits – to support security of supply, decarbonisation and flexibility – can materialise on time.
- The Natural Gas SA report identifies Italy, France and Spain as top producers in 2030, each with an estimated potential of approximately 6 bcm, followed by Germany with 4 bcm.
- The NT+ scenario foresees that in 2040 the overall production of renewable gases as sufficient to offset the decline in conventional natural gas production. A clear trend in the scenarios is that more biomass will be used in the future for production of biomethane, while less will be used directly for electricity generation. For 2040, biomethane supply in the NT+ scenario is aligned with the level in the EU impact assessment.
- In TYNDP 2024, biomethane projects are classified as a subcategory under the ‘Smart Gas Grid’ category. More information is available in the TYNDP 2024 System Assessment Report, accessible in the download section.
Figure 20: Biomethane production progress comparison