4 Reaching European energy and climate targets under different TYNDP scenarios

4.1 TYNDP 2024 Scenarios

Scenarios aim to establish a quantitative basis for the infrastructure assessment and network planning. The TYNDP Scenarios aim to maintain robustness by ensuring consistency between successive TYNDPs while also incorporating new elements relevant to the ongoing development of the energy transition.
The TYNDP 2024 scenario cycle included six scenarios, which are categorised as either National Trends+ (‘NT+’) scenarios or deviation scenarios (Distributed Energy, ‘DE’, and Global Ambition, ‘GA’), based on the development approach.
National Trends scenarios were developed for the 2030 and 2040 time-horizons.
The deviation scenarios (‘DE’ and ‘GA’) address increased uncertainties after 2030. These scenarios diverge from the NT+ scenario starting from the NT+ 2030 baseline and extend into the 2040 and 2050 time horizons.
The National Trends+ (NT+) scenario was selected in agreement with EC and ACER for TYNDP 2024 system- and project-level assessments.

NT+ is developed for the 2030 and 2040 time-horizons, as complete 2050 datasets are not available from all Member States for this scenario, while GA and DE continue until 2050, reaching net-zero greenhouse gas emissions.
Broadly, the NT+ scenario aligns with national energy and climate policies, including National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs), national long-term strategies, and hydrogen strategies, all of which are derived from European targets. It can be referred to as ‘the aggregation of national approaches, adjusted to reach EU targets’.
The deviation scenarios provide alternative references, based on contrasting choices for high-level drivers such as green transition, energy efficiency, and choices of technologies:
- Distributed Energy emphasises higher European autonomy with a renewable and decentralised focus, incorporating minimal Carbon Capture and Storage and nuclear energy.
- Global Ambition reflects a global economy with centralised low-carbon and widely deployed renewable energy sources (RES) , including the integration of nuclear and CCS technologies.

In the TYNDP 2024 scenarios, natural gas plays a crucial role in providing resilience and flexibility to the European energy system as electricity production from variable RES scale up. Going towards 2040 and 2050, a gradual replacement of conventional natural gas with renewable and clean gases is foreseen, to complement hydrogen.

Figure 5: TYNDP Scenario horizon and framework¹

¹ Further details are available at https://2024.entsos-tyndp-scenarios.eu/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/TYNDP_2024_Scenarios_Report_FInal_Version_250128_web.pdf

4.2 Aiming for new European energy and climate targets

The TYNDP 2024 scenarios must be, according to the revised TEN-E Regulation, fully in line with the energy efficiency first principle and with the Union’s 2030 targets for energy and climate and its 2050 climate neutrality objective and shall take into account the latest available Commission scenarios, as well as, when relevant, the national energy and climate plans (‘NECPs’). Specifically:

The energy efficiency first principle translates into an 11,7% reduction of primary energy use compared to 2020 energy consumption forecasts, contained in the EC’s 2022 reference scenarios.
The 2030 energy and climate targets have the core-objective of a 55% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels, with a RES of 42,5%, plus an indicative top-up of 2,5%.
- After applying a ‘gap-closing’ methodology, the original National Trends (NT) scenario is referred to as ‘National Trends+’ (NT+) and indicates a 45,4% RES share in 2030.

The 2050 climate neutrality objective, agreed at the Paris COP21, translates to becoming carbon-negative by 2050.
The EC’s reference scenarios, in this case ‘Fit for 55’ and ‘REPowerEU’, as well as, where relevant, NECPs.

4.3 Gap closing approach

The ’gap closing’ process was introduced in the 2024 cycle to ensure TYNDP scenarios comply with the above-mentioned targets.

The starting point were the gaps measured between the respective targets and actual, final energy consumption figures, collected by survey from electricity and gas TSOs.

The NT scenario revealed an 8% (818 TWh) gap compared to the 2030 energy efficiency target of 11,7%. The gap was adjusted based on the publicly consulted ‘Gap Closing Methodology’ . Where applicable, parameter assumptions were reassessed (for example, for oil or coal), and either the adjusted 2030 value or the submitted 2040 value for the 2040 time horizon was used. In this case, the minimum values were chosen as final assumptions, with an impact of 45 TWh less oil and respectively, 1 TWh less coal used at European level.

It must be noted that the methodology was applied to aggregated figures and not to MS- or sector-level data. Gas and electricity figures did not require adjustment. The gap closing methodology was deemed appropriate after undergoing public consultation.

The importance of gas molecules as energy carriers is foreseen in all scenarios, where methane remains predominant in 2030 and hydrogen becomes more prominent in the long-term.

The joint 2024 Scenarios report contains further details on the expected methane and hydrogen demand evolution per sector and under different scenarios.