Extra-EU supply needs are defined as the gap between EU demand and indigenous production, which includes biomethane production, conventional natural gas production, and synthetic ­methane. In this assessment, these supply needs can be met through a combination of LNG and pipeline gas imports.

As observed in Figure 3, a declining trend of extra-EU supply need is seen for the NT+ scenario. The combination of a lower demand and a higher biomethane production² in 2040 leads to decreasing extra-EU supply import needs over time in the NT+ scenario. The increased production of bio­methane contributes towards a stable level of the indigenous production.

Under the NT+ scenario, extra-EU supply needs are estimated to range between 3,050 and 3,150 TWh/year (or 276 and 287 bcm/year) in 2030, and between 1,400 and 1,450 TWh/year (or 129 and 132 bcm/year) in 2040.

Any future deviations from the NT+ scenario assumptions regarding biomethane production, domestic natural gas output, or overall gas demand would directly affect these extra-EU supply needs.

In addition, every four years, in accordance with the Security of Supply Regulation³, ENTSOG conducts a Union-wide simulation of gas supply and infrastructure disruption scenarios. The Union-wide Security of Supply Simulation report assesses the role of the natural gas infrastructure under challenging conditions, such as cold winter demand and low gas storage levels disruption scenarios. ­Considering the evolution of the gas system anticipated over the next four years, such simulations reflect the configuration of emergency gas ­corridors applicable during the implementation of the next national preventive action and emergency plans.

Underground natural gas storage is one of the most common and efficient methods of energy storage. These facilities are considered highly secure due to their subsurface location in porous geological formations, such as sedimentary rocks or aquifers, which are specifically designed to prevent gas ­leakage.

During the summer months, when energy demand is lower, natural gas is injected into underground storage to enhance security of supply. The gas is stored under high pressure and held until needed – ­typically during the colder months.

In winter, gas is withdrawn from storage and transported through pipelines to meet heating demand in residential and commercial sectors, as well as to supply electricity generation plants such as combined cycle gas turbines (CCGTs). Gas stocks must be carefully monitored to ensure that sufficient ­supply is available to meet demand at all times.

The supply configuration applied in the Dual Gas Model (DGM) is designed to minimise the use of Russian natural gas. In line with this assumption, the simulation results indicate that Russian pipeline supply does not contribute to the overall supply mix. This reflects a strategic shift towards diversification of supply sources and enhanced energy security.

Under Peak Demand (PD) situations, the balance between supply and demand significantly depends on the utilisation of underground natural gas ­storage. However, due to the substantial decline in methane demand over the years, the level of ­sufficiency required from storage has decreased.

Nevertheless, natural gas infrastructure (including underground storages) remains essential for enhancing the security of gas supply in Europe, particularly to support the supply and demand balance not only in the Peak Demand (PD) situations or event of import disruptions but also amid a decrease in gas imports over time.

This analysis is based on the differences of the contrasted supply mixes in the European yearly supply and demand balance for the reference weather year (i.  e., 1995) and the stressful weather year (i.  e., 2009). Storage facilities are assumed to balance seasonal fluctuations, with injection starting and withdrawal ending at a 30 % storage level. Therefore, storage is not represented in the yearly supply mix graphs.

Conventional natural gas production declines over the years and is gradually replaced by the expected ramp-up in biomethane production.

At the same time, the import shares from ­Norway, LNG, North Africa, and the Caspian region are increasingly substituted by national production, alongside a substantial decrease in methane demand over time.

The evolution of the supply mix shares under both the Low and the Advanced natural gas infrastructure levels follows the same trend.

The overall yearly supply and demand balance under stressful weather conditions (i.  e., 2009) represents an increase by approx. 5 percentage points when compared to the reference weather year (i.  e., 1995).

Biomethane plays an increasingly important role in ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply, as it can be injected directly into both distribution and transmission gas networks, serving as a renewable and locally produced alternative to ­natural gas.

The European Biogas Association (EBA) has been actively tracking and reporting on investments in biomethane production across Europe in the coming years. According to the 2^nd EBA Investment Outlook from 2024, biomethane production investments will yield a total added capacity of 6.3 bcm within Europe to reach approximately 11 bcm by 2030. This projection is based on a database of announced European biomethane projects, combined with an assumed sectoral growth rate.

As shown in Figure 10, EBA projections indicate that biomethane production is not currently on track to meet the REPowerEU target of 35 bcm by 2030. However, the same figure also presents data from the ENTSOG and ENTSO-E TYNDP 2024 Scenarios Report, which offers a more optimistic outlook.

According to this assessment, Europe’s biomethane production potential could exceed 40 bcm by 2030. Italy, France, and Spain are identified as key contributors, each with an estimated potential of around 6 bcm, followed by Germany with 4 bcm.

At the same time, conventional natural gas production is expected to continue its gradual decline, increasingly replaced by biomethane as projected in the scenarios. Although biomethane and biogas production have grown at a strong pace in recent years, the current trajectory still falls short of meeting the REPowerEU target.

Consequently, the natural gas infrastructure with methane supply is expected to play a critical role for a longer transition period than initially foreseen, ensuring system flexibility and supply security as renewable gas volumes continue to scale up.