The natural gas system remains critical in enabling Europe’s energy security. It will continue to play a significant role in ensuring a stable and reliable energy supply, transporting declining national production and imports, partly offset by biomethane and synthetic methane. Moreover, gas infrastructure plays a pivotal role in providing the capacity needed for the electricity sector to back up variable RES, helping to mitigate electricity price volatility and reducing costs for industry and society as a whole. Repurposing to hydrogen should follow a comprehensive assessment with the involvement of stakeholders, as mentioned in the joint ENTSOG-ENNOH draft report on Criteria for natural gas infrastructure repurposing.
6.1 Decreasing natural gas investments
- 17 new and 78 existing projects were submitted to the TYNDP 2024 under the natural gas category. Overall, the share of new natural gas projects decreased from 20% to 14% between TYNDP 2022 and 2024.
- In contrast to hydrogen, natural gas project submissions have been progressively decreasing in recent TYNDP cycles, making up a significant part of the cancelled/not re-submitted projects.
- This can be attributed to two main factors: the development of the hydrogen sector and natural gas projects are no longer eligible for PCI/PMI status, with two exceptions: the EastMed Pipeline and the Malta connection.
6.2 Repurposing, supply adequacy and sustainability
- Repurposing existing natural gas infrastructure to hydrogen is expected to significantly contribute to the future European hydrogen network: 41 of 100 projects in the hydrogen transmission category of TYNDP 2024 have repurposed components.
- Assessing the implications of such repurposing is critical in the context of security of supply, as it can affect the availability and resilience of the natural gas network – especially if the energy transition is slow to materialise. Any delays in the completion of projects or repurposing to hydrogen may additionally lead to congestion, affecting sustainability, competition and diversification. This process must be planned transparently and in coordination between operators, while safeguarding natural gas security of supply and fulfilling regulatory requirements. An EU-wide security of supply assessment should complement analyses to evaluate the impact of repurposing on system resilience, as mentioned in the conclusions of the 2025 Copenhagen forum.
- As part of the transition, the steady decline in conventional natural gas production in Europe (see chart below) is expected to be mainly offset by biomethane, as well as synthetic methane1. All types of methane are also expected to contribute to sustainability needs derived from coal-to-gas switching.
- The imports from Norway, LNG, North Africa, and the Caspian region are increasingly substituted by national production. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 led to a major overhaul of energy policy objectives in terms of energy security and diversification of supply. The future development of gas infrastructure must consider the ongoing decarbonisation trend and a need to no longer use Russian gas by 2027, in line with EC legislative proposals of June 2025 outlining the gradual phase-out of Russian gas imports into the EU. The DGM is designed to minimise the use of Russian supply in order to assess potential dependency. Simulation results indicate that Russian pipeline supply does not contribute to the overall supply mix, including in peak demand situations.
1 A synthetic fuel produced by conversion from hydrogen and biogenic CO₂, through processes like methanation. This contrasts with biomethane, which is derived from biomass, mainly from agriculture.
Figure 13: Supply Adequacy Outlook2
2 See the TYNDP 2024 System Assessment Report for further details, available in the download section.
6.3 Growing role of storage for cross-system flexibility
- The role played by gas infrastructure in providing capacities for the electricity sector to back up variable renewable energy sources is pivotal. It can help to mitigate electricity price hikes, leading to lower costs for industries and society as a whole. The ERAA 2024 also confirms this finding of the Natural Gas System Assessment report, quantifying it at a minimum of 50 GW more flexible fossil gas capacity, required by 2035.
- The expected decline in methane demand over the years would also decrease sufficiency required from storage. Nevertheless, underground storages remain essential to support supply and demand balance – not only in Peak Demand (PD) situations but also in the event of supply disruptions.
- Infrastructure stress case simulations, consisting of the Single Largest Infrastructure Disruption (SLID) during a PD situation – excluding underground storage facilities and domestic production – under different natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure level combinations indicate the following:
- A generally robust level of infrastructure cooperation across the EU countries exists. This resilience is further supported by the projected decline in natural gas demand and the anticipated increase in biomethane production, both of which are key assumptions in the NT+ scenario.
- Impact is most significant in countries located at the periphery of the Europe, due to limited interconnection and reliance on a reduced number of import routes. Cyprus, Malta and Bosnia and Herzegovina are exposed to 100 % demand curtailment, as they each have only one interconnection.
- Other countries, like Sweden, Finland, Northern Ireland, Luxembourg, North Macedonia and Greece show curtailment in 2030 but the situation improves in 2040, with decreasing gas demand and/or growing biomethane availability.
An example of simulation results can be seen in the graphs below. The complete analyses are available in the Natural Gas System Assessment report3. In addition, an online visualisation platform, with flexible filtering, is available here.
A coordinated approach, integrating electricity and gases – including natural gas, biomethane, synthetic methane and hydrogen – is critical to ensuring cost-effective and efficient infrastructure development in a technology-neutral way.
3 The report is available in the download section.
Figure 14: SLID Peak Demand results in Low natural gas infrastructure level
Figure 15: SLID Peak Demand results in Advanced natural gas infrastructure level