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Picture courtesy of Gassco

4 Assessment for 2040

This section describes the evolution of the IGI indicators for the reference weather year (i. e., 1995) and the stressful weather year (i. e., 2009) for the analysed infrastructure levels (i. e., PCI/PMI and Advanced hydrogen infrastructure levels) for the simulation year 2040.

4.1 Infrastructure Gaps Identification

4.1.1 Assessment of PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level

High-level results for reference weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 is presented in Table 23. As detailed in Table 23, the overall hydrogen demand triples compared to the 2030 hydrogen demand level, leading to a yearly hydrogen demand of 1936 TWh/y in Europe. Electrolytic hydrogen production remains the main source of hydrogen in Europe, satisfying 56 % of the yearly hydrogen demand of Europe.

Despite i) the infrastructure development foreseen in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level for 2040 (see section 1.1), ii) the increase of extra-EU supply potentials via terminals and pipelines, and iii) the significant increase of electrolytic hydrogen production (by approximately 246 %), this is not sufficient to satisfy the hydrogen demand in many European countries. Therefore, overall hydrogen demand curtailment rises compared to the 2030 values leading to an average hydrogen curtailment rate of 15 % in Europe.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balancePCI/PMI IL 2030PCI/PMI IL 2040
H2 produced via electrolysis3101,074
H2 produced using natural gas229162
H2 shipped imports2983
H2 pipeline imports0316
Curtailed H2 demand52294
H2 demand for power production277
Total H2 demand6201,929

Table 23: Supply and demand balance in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 and 2040 for reference weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 21 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2040 assessment. European electrolytic production significantly increased compared to 2030 in most European countries. The countries with the highest electrolytic hydrogen production are: Spain, ­Germany, Finland, France and Sweden.

Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production. This is related to the intra-country assumptions that are detailed in the description of the reference weather year in section 3.1.1.

IGI fig021

Figure 21: Distribution of electrolytic hydrogen production per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Figure 22 shows the distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in 2040. There is a reduction in hydrogen production from natural gas compared to 2030 as presented in Table 23.

This reduction is explained by i) the 50 % reduction in the installed capacities for hydrogen production from natural gas as defined in the TYNDP 2024 NT+ scenario, ii) the higher electrolytic production as well as iii) the availability of new hydrogen supplies through imports from North Africa, Norway, Ukraine, and via terminals.

IGI fig022

Figure 22: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT13,6502,960045,203
BE7,8689,94835,74885,036
BG3574,932012,712
CZ5,7363,89302,614
CY00046,404
DE171,22638,206130,262549,465
DK42,9380031,337
EE036603,128
ES190,2374,08717,505156,348
FI168,8581,617085,318
FR112,48411,2817,429166,472
GR22,1383,126038,538
HR2,9583,40208,168
HU3,7395,535026,496
IE13,2140014,439
IT24,9507,659144,115127,210
LT14,2925,207022,242
LU378009,772
LV0004,042
MT0001,475
NL78,36826,42130,469128,848
PL17,06119,3590133,930
PT13,7512,050019,628
RO3,1034,572037,722
SE84,6891,443071,263
SI2,681005,822
SK072734,5919,549
UK82,6785,576091,428

Table 24: Distribution of hydrogen production, imported hydrogen and demand per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Considering the supply and demand distribution presented in Table 24, the intra-EU transport corridors that already emerged in 2030, connecting the electrolytic hydrogen supply produced in the Iberian Peninsula and in the Nordic countries with the main European hydrogen hub in Germany, are even more needed in the 2040 PCI/PMI assessment due to the increase of hydrogen demand between 2030 and 2040. The Iberian corridor is thereby supported by imports from Morocco.

In addition, as presented in Figure 23, other intra-EU transport corridors emerge, mainly driven by the availability of extra-EU supplies in the 2040 assessment. Namely, the new corridors identified for 2040 are:

  • North African corridor, transporting Algerian supplies to Italy, Austria, Germany and other countries.
  • Norwegian corridor, transporting Norwegian supplies to Germany.
  • Ukrainian corridor, transporting Ukrainian supplies to Slovakia and Czechia and other countries.
IGI fig023

Figure 23: Grid flows* in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and do not intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

In the 2040 PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for the reference weather year, countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:

1. Countries which export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain and Greece.

2. Countries that import more than they export: Poland, Bulgaria and Portugal.

3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Italy, Germany, Slovakia, Austria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, France and Netherlands.

4. Isolated countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.

While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.

1 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.

High-level results for stressful weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for the stressful weather year is presented in Table 25. As detailed in Table 25, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe but it is reduced in comparison with the reference weather year. To compensate the reduction of electrolytic hydrogen production, hydrogen import sources, both via ship and pipeline, increase in comparison with the reference weather year.

The imports via terminals increase by 15 %. The consideration of a stressful weather year leads to an approximate rate of 18 % of hydrogen demand curtailment at European level. This represents an increase by 3 % in comparison with the reference weather year.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance PCI/PMI IL 2030PCI/PMI IL 2040
H2 produced via electrolysis2701,000
H2 produced using natural gas245165
H2 shipped imports3696
H2 pipeline imports0320
Curtailed H2 demand69352
H2 demand for power production275
Total H2 demand6191,933

Table 25: Supply and demand balance in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 and 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 24 shows the distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2040 assessment under stressful weather conditions. Despite the overall reduction of electrolytic hydrogen production, under stressful weather conditions the countries with the highest electrolytic hydrogen production follow the same distribution as in the PCI/PMI 2040 assessment for the reference weather year (see Figure 21).

Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production. This is related to the intra-country assumptions that are detailed in the description of the reference weather year in section 3.1.1.

IGI fig024

Figure 24: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

The distribution of hydrogen production produced from natural gas in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2040 assessment under stressful weather conditions is presented in Figure 25.

No significant change was observed in comparison to the reference weather year presented in Figure 22.

IGI fig025

Figure 25: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT13,4763,028045,867
BE6,8189,95840,78385,423
BG3504,957012,712
CZ5,6533,95102,614
CY00046,404
DE159,49438,514131,595548,503
DK39,8310031,337
EE036603,128
ES185,0104,55218,433156,348
FI147,5412,149085,318
FR104,32711,2938,815166,517
GR22,1593,140038,538
HR2,8243,41008,168
HU3,5145,535026,496
IE13,0920014,439
IT24,8787,506144,927127,210
LT13,3645,207022,242
LU350009,772
LV0004,042
MT0001,475
NL68,81126,43535,523126,090
PL15,32219,3590134,041
PT13,5392,075019,628
RO3,0714,572037,722
SE73,6211,906071,263
SI2,217005,822
SK072735,8439,549
UK80,0256,396091,428

Table 26: Distribution of hydrogen production, imported hydrogen and demand per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

As presented in Figure 26 and Table 26 the flows through the two corridors connecting electrolytic supply with German and European demand reduced in the stressful weather year assessment, driven by the overall reduction of available RES.

This affects the Iberian and the Nordic corridor. The flows through intra-EU transport corridors that are supplied by Norway, North Africa and Ukraine therefore increase if possible.

IGI fig026

Figure 26: Grid flows* in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and do not intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

When comparing Figure 26 with Figure 23, most European countries show the same behaviour in terms of being a net exporter, a net importer or a transit country for the stressful as for the reference weather year. As expected under stressful climatic conditions, corridors based mainly on electrolytic production will see their exporting role slightly reduced due to the lower availability of RES (i. e., Iberian and Nordic corridors).

Consequently, also the transit through countries along these routes is reduced (e. g., transit through Baltic countries). On the contrary, both liquid imports and import corridors via pipeline, will maximize their flows to compensate the reduction on European electrolytic supplies.

4.1.1.1 IGI indicator 1: Hydrogen market clearing price spreads for reference weather year

Overview: Hydrogen market clearing prices per country

IGI fig027

Figure 27: Average of the hourly hydrogen market clearing prices per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 (unit: €/MWh).

The increase of hydrogen demand considered in the 2040 assessment leads to a general increase of average hydrogen market clearing prices in Europe when compared to the 2030 assessment, as represented in Figure 27. This increase is connected to the higher rates of curtailed demand across Europe, and to a lesser extent to the use of more expensive hydrogen import sources to satisfy the hydrogen demand in the different European countries. In South-Eastern Europe, where most of the countries have limited connection to the European hydrogen network and rely on the local hydrogen production, the increase of hydrogen prices is more pronounced. This steep increase is explained by the increase of demand curtailment, as well as the use of more expensive hydrogen sources to satisfy hydrogen demand in order to avoid curtailment. As presented in Figure 27, this is particularly important as these countries are isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. In addition, the cost of hydrogen production from natural gas increases significantly in the 2040 assessment due to the increase of the ETS price as stipulated in the TYNDP 2024 NT+ scenario.

Despite the increase of hydrogen market clearing prices in many countries in the 2040 assessment, there are other countries or areas where the average hydrogen market clearing price decreases compared to 2030:

  • Due to higher availability of electrolytic hydrogen production: Spain, Portugal, France-South region, Finland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Ireland.
  • Due to new interconnections:
    • Italy, mainly driven by the availability of North African hydrogen supplies.
    • Slovakia, mainly driven by the connection to the European hydrogen network and the availability of Ukrainian hydrogen supplies.

The price formation in the DHEM is based on the merit order of hydrogen production (see section 1.2.1). Several price groups stand out, while a signification correlation is understood here as a correlation above 0.7:

1. Portugal, Spain, France-South region: ­Portugal and Spain are producers and net exporters of electrolytic hydrogen from RES to other countries. While the France-South region is sufficiently connected to the Iberian peninsula, price spreads appear with other groups of (regions of) countries due to an internal bottleneck in France. The prices in this group show no significant correlation with the prices in other groups.

2. France-Southwest region: The prices in this group show no significant correlation with the prices in other groups. The group exists due to bottlenecks within France.

3. France-North region: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12. The group exists due to bottlenecks within France.

4. France, Belgium-Mons region: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12. The group exists due to bottlenecks within France and Belgium.

5. Belgium, the Netherlands: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 7, 10, 11, 12. The group exists due to bottlenecks with France and Germany.

6. Denmark: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 11, 12. The group exists due to a bottleneck from Denmark to Germany.

7. Germany, Czechia, Austria: Well interconnected countries. The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12.

8. Italy: While being connected to Austria, the bottleneck between Italy and Austria is so dominant that Italy has no significant price correlation with any other (region of a) country.

9. Poland-North region: While being connected to Germany and Lithuania (via the Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor), the Poland-North region has no significant price correlation with any other (region of a) country due to the bottlenecks associated with both connections.

10. Sweden, Finland: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12. The group exists due to a bottle­neck between Sweden/Finland and Germany and a bottleneck between Finland and Estonia.

11. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 12. The group exists due to a bottleneck between Finland and Estonia as well as bottlenecks from Lithuania to Poland and within Poland.

12. Slovakia: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11. The group exists due to a bottleneck from Austria to Slovakia and a bottleneck from Slovakia to Czechia.

13. Ireland, the United Kingdom: Isolated countries without significant price correlations but with average prices below 100 €/MWh.

14. Greece, Bulgaria: Countries showing significant price correlation, jointly isolated from the other European countries.

15. Romania, Hungary: The group exists due to a bottleneck between Slovakia and Hungary (and no connection between Romania and Bulgaria).

16. Croatia (only connected to Bosnia), Slovenia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Malta, Poland-South region: Isolated countries without significant price correlations (except for Croatia and Slovenia due to a similar national hydrogen production constellation) and with average prices above 100 €/MWh.

BorderThreshold 1: Absolute average hourly hydrogen market clearing price spread above 4 €/MWhThreshold 2: More than 40 days with hydrogen market clearing price spread above 20 €/MWh
DEh2 – DKh221140
DEh2 – FIh216101
DEh2 – ITh229190
DEh2 – PLh2N50274
DEh2 – PLh2S100325
DEh2 – SEh216101
FIh2 – EEh21388
FRh2 – FRh2S46283
FRh2 – FRh2SW31197
FRh2 – ITh230197
FRh2S – FRh2SW29132
HUh2 – ATh251278
HUh2 – HRh232205
HUh2 – SKh2E51277
ITh2 – ATh229188
ITh2 – HRh250282
LTh2 – PLh2N49270
NLh2 – UKh256305
PLh2N – PLh2S5060
PLh2S – CZh2100325
PLh2S – SKh2E101325
ROh2 – BGh222127
SIh2 – HRh21142
SKh2E – PLh2S101325
UKh2 – BEh256305
UKh2 – IEh225133

Table 27: List of borders in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level that exceed (at least one of) the thresholds ­defined for IGI indicator 1 in 2040.

The price correlations listed above are enabled by the infrastructure projects already considered in this hydrogen infrastructure level. However, price differences that led to the identification of the groups listed above are not necessarily describing an infrastructure gap. For this identification of infrastructure gaps, the thresholds of IGI indicator 1 are used.

The IGI indicator 1 reveals in the 2040 assessment of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level an increase of the price spreads at many European borders when compared to the 2030 assessment.

At the following borders, IGI indicator 1 identified additional significant price spreads in comparison with the 2030 assessment due to bottlenecks:

  • Finland/Sweden and Germany: With the increase of electrolytic hydrogen production in Finland and Sweden, market clearing prices are reduced in these countries and the utilisation of the transport route to Germany increases. Thereby, the interconnection acts as a bottleneck.
  • Finland and Estonia: With the increase of electrolytic hydrogen production in Finland, the utilisation of the interconnection between Finland and Estonia increases. Thereby, the interconnection acts as a bottleneck.
  • Italy and Austria (and France and Germany): The availability of Algerian imports significantly increases the utilization of the Italy-Austria-Germany route. Thereby, the interconnection between Italy and Austria acts as a bottleneck. Besides, the hydrogen market clearing price spread between Italy on the one side and Germany or France on the other side is increasing over the threshold. No direct connection between Italy and Germany or France is available.
  • Germany and Poland-North region: The net demand increase in the Poland-North region increases the utilisation of the interconnection between them. Thereby, the interconnection acts as a bottleneck.
  • Lithuania and Poland-North region: The net demand increase in the Poland-North region increases the utilisation of the interconnection between them (via the Nordic-Baltic Hydrogen Corridor). Thereby, the interconnection acts as a bottleneck.

In the 2040 PCI/PMI assessment, there are some borders where the price spread has decreased compared to the 2030 assessment. At the following borders, the IGI indicator 1 therefore does not identify a significant price spread anymore:

  • Slovakia, Austria, Czechia: The connection of Slovakia in the 2040 PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level to Austria and Czechia allows the market clearing prices to converge in these countries.

Countries and regions that are isolated in 2040 in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, such as Hungary, Romania, cluster Greece-Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, Luxembourg, Poland South, France South West, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Malta and Cyprus, remain showing significant price spreads with their neighbouring countries and regions, as identified by IGI indicator 1 in Table 27.

4.1.1.2 IGI indicator 2.1: Hydrogen demand curtailment for reference ­weather year

As explained in section 1.2.2, this IGI indicator assesses infrastructure gaps by quantifying hydrogen demand curtailments at individual nodes ­during the reference weather year, assuming no disruptions of infrastructures or of supply sources. It involves a multi-step simulation process integrating DHEM and DGM2 outputs to evaluate the combined curtailments across nodes. The assessment is performed for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040, showing the effects of matured infrastructure in 2040.

Figure 28 and Table 28 show yearly average curtailment rates of hydrogen demand in the Zone 2 nodes of different European countries. For countries where the hydrogen market is divided into several sub-zones (i. e., nodes), the curtailment rate in the different sub-zones is presented. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby ­colour-coded in the map to indicate levels relative to the set threshold: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not above it.

2 This draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report only includes the simulation results of the DHEM.

IGI fig028

Figure 28: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2040 for reference year (unit: %).

H2 Demand Zone Demand curtailment rate (%)
ATh27.01
BEh25.66
BEh2Mo13.5
BGh238.01
CYh2100
CZh28.95
DEh215.41
DKh220.94
EEh210.45
ESh21.99
FIh26.74
FIh2N3.36
FIH2S2.83
FRh28.91
FRh2S3.18
FRh2SW11.52
GRh246.45
HRh227.34
H2 Demand Zone Demand curtailment rate (%) 
HUh275.33
IEh28.3
ITh21.08
LTh210.67
LUh295.54
LVh216.58
MTh2100
NLh28.72
PLh2N50.78
PLh2S69.83
PTh24.78
ROh290.73
SEh24.86
SIh254.94
SKh2E3.61
SKh2W4.81
UKh23.91

Table 28: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: %).

All European countries and regions overshoot the threshold of 0 % of IGI indicator 2.1 in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040. However, differences in the hydrogen curtailment rates between nodes are related to the level of infrastructure development and supply availability. In comparison with IGI indicator 1, this IGI indicator focusses on the availability of supplies.

As detailed in Table 28, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 5 %: Portugal, Spain, Italy, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Finland-North region, Finland-South region, France-South region, Slovakia-West region, Slovakia-East region.

2. Rates between 5 % and 20 %: Finland, Austria, Belgium, Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, France, France-Southwest region, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, the Netherlands.

3. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Bulgaria, ­Denmark, Greece, Croatia.

4. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Romania, Poland-North region, Poland-South region, Hungary, Luxembourg.

5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta.

Without the infrastructure already considered in the hydrogen infrastructure level, the overall hydrogen demand curtailment would be higher.

Even though the threshold has been surpassed, countries and regions of group 1 exhibit hydrogen demand curtailment rates below 5 % average yearly curtailment rate, meaning that for a large share of the year their demand is fully covered. Portugal, Slovakia and the United Kingdom show decreased curtailment rates compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for 2030. This is particularly evident for Slovakia due to its connection to the European backbone and to Ukrainian hydrogen supplies in 2040. For the other countries and regions in this group, hydrogen curtailment rates increase with the general trend of increased hydrogen curtailment rates in 2040. The primary driver behind this increase is the rising demand for hydrogen within these individual countries, which surpasses the current capacity of available infrastructure. Despite advancements in PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, the rapid growth in hydrogen consumption highlights the need for further investment and development to meet the increasing demand. This trend underlines the evolving challenges of balancing infrastructure enhancements with accelerating demand.

Group 2 of countries and regions also contains those that show decreased hydrogen curtailment rates, i. e., Austria, the Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, the France-Southwest region, Ireland, Lithuania, and Latvia. Additionally, countries such as Lithuania and France not only benefit from improved import infrastructure but also experience increased their electrolytic production in 2040, which further mitigates curtailment rates. These developments highlight the effectiveness of infrastructure expansion and technological advancements in reducing hydrogen demand curtailment. At the same time, there is slight increases of hydrogen curtailment rates in Germany, Finland and France caused by increases of hydrogen demand in 2040.

Group 3, comprising Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece and Croatia, shows demand curtailments greater than 20 % but below 50 %. Within this category, curtailment rates are observed to rise from 2030 to 2040, driven by the increase of hydrogen demand in these countries and limited cross-border interconnections. The growing demand outpaces infrastructure improvements, leaving national markets unable to fully satisfy their hydrogen demand.

Group 4, experiencing hydrogen demand curtailment rates exceeding 50 % but remaining below 100 %, includes Slovenia and Romania, which have managed to reduce their hydrogen curtailment rates compared to 2030 while remaining isolated. Slovenia achieves a notable reduction from 76.6 % to 54.9 %, whereas Romania shows only a marginal reduction of 0.2 %. Conversely, the Poland-North region, the Poland-South region and Hungary experience increases in hydrogen demand curtailment rates, as significant growth in national demand outstrips the available capacity of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure as well as hydrogen production options in 2040. Luxembourg remains as isolated in 2040 as in 2030 in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level.

Finally, Malta and Cyprus, due to their geographically isolated locations, continue to experience a demand curtailment of 100 % at the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040. The absence of connections with broader European hydrogen infrastructure underscores the challenges faced by island nations in integrating into the continental hydrogen network.

In the Poland-North Region, France and Czechia, on top of the curtailments observed in Zone 2 nodes as described in the paragraphs above, hydrogen demand curtailments can be observed in Zone 1 that increase during the winter months.

4.1.1.3 IGI indicator 2.2: Hydrogen demand curtailment for stressful ­weather year

Threshold 1: A yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 3 %

Figure 29 and Table 29 show the yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in the Zone 2 nodes of various European countries for 2040, simulated under a stressful weather year. This weather scenario assumes adverse conditions, such as reduced wind and solar energy availability, which directly impacts hydrogen production.

For countries with hydrogen markets divided into multiple sub-zones (i. e., nodes), curtailment rates are depicted individually for each sub-zone on the map. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded to indicate levels relative to the set threshold 1: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not.

IGI fig029

Figure 29: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: %).

NodeDemand curtailment rate (%)
ATh28.05
BEh25.57
BEh2Mo20.35
BGh237.41
CYh2100.00
CZh210.25
DEh220.98
DKh226.43
EEh217.85
ESh22.49
FIh211.71
FIh2N6.26
FIH2S5.64
FRh213.19
FRh2S4.61
FRh2SW17.74
GRh246.14
HRh228.85
NodeDemand curtailment rate (%) 
HUh276.21
IEh29.35
ITh20.58
LTh216.28
LUh295.87
LVh227.23
MTh2100.00
NLh210.85
PLh2N55.21
PLh2S72.97
PTh26.27
ROh290.73
SEh29.80
SIh262.70
SKh2E2.51
SKh2W3.69
UKh25.79

Table 29: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI ­hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: %).

Countries are grouped into five categories based on their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 3 %: Italy, Spain, Slovakia-East region.

2. Rates between 3 % and 20 %: Belgium, Slovakia-­West region, Portugal, Sweden, ­Ireland, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands, Austria, Czechia, Lithuania, France, France-North region, France-South region, France-Southwest region, Latvia.

3. Rates above 20 % and below 50 %: Belgium-­Mons region, Greece, Denmark, Croatia, ­sGermany, Bulgaria.

4. Rates above 50 % and below 100 %: Slovenia, Romania, Luxembourg, Poland-North region, Poland-South region, Hungary.

5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta.

Countries and regions with hydrogen curtailment rates below 3 % in 2040 include Italy, Spain, Slovakia East Region. These countries and regions demonstrate remarkable resilience even under stressful weather conditions. For instance, Spain achieves a low curtailment rate of 2.5 %, owing to its robust hydrogen production and storage ­system.

The Slovakia-East region, at 2.5 %, benefits from enhanced import capabilities from Ukraine that effectively mitigates supply disruptions during adverse weather.

Group 2 includes the Belgium, Slovakia-West region, Portugal, Sweden, Ireland, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands, Austria, Czechia, Lithuania, France, France-North region, France-South region, France-Southwest region, Latvia. Their curtailment rates exceed the 3 % threshold but remain below 20 %. Slovakia-West, for example, reports a curtailment rate of 3.7 %, reflecting its reliance on imports to bridge domestic production gaps. Similarly, Finland’s regions show slight variations, driven by reduced wind and hydropower outputs during the stressful weather year.

Belgium-Mons region, Greece, Denmark, Croatia, Germany, Bulgaria are part of group 3, exhibiting more significant curtailment challenges. Greece, with a curtailment rate of 46.1 %, struggles due to its limited domestic production and dependency on solar energy, which is significantly affected by the stressful weather year. The Belgium-Mons region, at 20.4 %, reflects the localised nature of its hydrogen supply challenges, as this region operates as a distinct hydrogen cluster. Germany, with a hydrogen demand curtailment rate of 21.4 %, faces increasing hydrogen demand in its industrial and ­transportation sectors, exacerbated by reduced renewable output in a stressful weather year.

Countries in group 4 experience severe curtailment challenges under adverse weather conditions. Slovenia’s hydrogen demand curtailment rate improves slightly from 76.6 % in 2030 to 62.7 % in 2040 but remains high due to inadequate infrastructure and limited renewable energy supply. Poland shows a clear regional disparity, with the Southern region exhibiting a higher curtailment rate (73 %) compared to the Northern region (55.2 %). Hungary, at 76.2 %, faces significant constraints driven by its growing hydrogen demand and insufficient cross-border capacity to meet needs during stressful weather periods. Luxembourg’s hydrogen demand curtailment rate of 95.9 % underscores its continued need for connection and lack of domestic production, which are further impacted during adverse weather.

Malta and Cyprus experience full curtailment of 100 % in 2040, as these countries remain entirely isolated and have no hydrogen production assets.

Threshold 2: hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 5 % for at least one month per year

All the countries and regions that exceed threshold 1 also exceeded threshold 2.

4.1.2 Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level

High-level results for reference weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 is presented in Table 30. As detailed in Table 30, overall hydrogen demand more than triples compared to the 2030 hydrogen demand level, leading to a yearly hydrogen demand of 1936 TWh/y in Europe.

Whereas the overall foreseen hydrogen demand does not vary between the analysed infrastructure levels, there are significant differences between them in terms of i) hydrogen demand curtailment and ii) availability of the different supplies.

The advanced infrastructure level shows a lower overall hydrogen demand curtailment rate in Europe. The reduction in the demand curtailment in this infrastructure level is related to the higher availability of hydrogen shipped imports and the maximization of the use of pipeline imports, more specifically Norwegian, North African and Ukrainian imports. The maximization of imports is possible thanks to the consideration of non-PCI/PMI advanced infrastructure that enables transport to countries that were isolated in the PCI/PMI infrastructure level, through the SK/HU/RO hydrogen corridor, as well as, the maximization of national production (both from electrolytic and natural-gas based) through a higher utilization of PCI/PMI infrastructure.

Despite i) the infrastructure development foreseen in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level for 2040 (see section 1.1.2), ii) the increase of extra-EU supply potentials via terminals and pipelines, and iii) the significant increase of electrolytic hydrogen production (by approximately 250 % compared to 2030), this is not sufficient to satisfy the hydrogen demand in many European countries and therefore, overall hydrogen demand curtailment rises compared to the 2030 values leading to an average hydrogen curtailment of 12 % in Europe. This is lower than the 15 % average hydrogen demand curtailment in Europe in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. This reduction is related to the higher availability of hydrogen terminals and the maximization of the use of pipeline imports from Norway, North Africa and Ukraine. The maximization of imports is possible thanks to the consideration of non-PCI/PMI advanced infrastructure that enables transport to countries that were isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. This relates to the transit route through Slovakia, Hungary and Romania as well as the maximisation of national hydrogen production enabled by increased capacities.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance Advanced IL 2030Advanced IL 2040
H2 produced via electrolysis3041,080
H2 produced using natural gas224168
H2 shipped imports24110
H2 pipeline imports42335
Curtailed H2 demand27237
H2 demand for power production277
Total H2 demand6201,929

Table 30: Supply and demand balance in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 and 2040 for reference weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 30 shows the electrolytic hydrogen production in the different European countries for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2040 assessment. The European electrolytic production significantly increased compared to 2030 in most European countries. The electrolytic production slightly varies country to country in comparison to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, being slightly higher for the Advanced hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2040. However, the overall distribution across Europe is rather similar.

Figure 31 shows the distribution of hydrogen ­production from natural gas in 2040. There is a reduction in hydrogen production from natural gas compared to 2030. The reasons for this are explained in section 4.1.1.

IGI fig030

Figure 30: Distribution of electrolytic hydrogen production in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

IGI fig031

Figure 31: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Considering the supply and demand distribution presented in Table 31, the intra-EU transport corridors that already emerged in the 2030 assessment of the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level as well as new supply corridors are even more needed in the 2040 assessment due to the increase of hydrogen demand between 2030 and 2040.

These corridors are the Iberian and the Baltic corridors as well as the North African corridor with the main European hydrogen hub in Germany.

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT14,3113,084044,764
BE7,81810,03540,32685,007
BG3494,941012,712
CZ5,9263,91602,614
CY00046,404
DE174,54941,055145,961549,452
DK43,3000031,337
EE036603,128
ES189,3834,43617,607156,348
FI169,4561,791085,318
FR112,84711,4298,027166,556
GR21,7843,138038,538
HR2,8573,43208,168
HU3,6875,535026,496
IE13,2060014,439
IT24,7487,851148,174127,210
LT14,3805,207022,242
LU378009,772
LV0004,042
MT0001,475
NL78,34028,04741,541128,923
PL16,97019,3596,439133,926
PT13,8062,060019,628
RO3,0654,572037,722
SE85,6701,573071,263
SI2,547005,822
SK072738,1849,549
UK82,6155,645091,428

Table 31: Distribution of hydrogen production, imported hydrogen and demand per country in the advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y ).

In addition, as presented in Figure 32, other intra-EU transport corridors emerge, mainly driven by the availability of extra-EU supplies in the 2040 assessment. Namely, the new corridors identified for 2040 are:

  • Norwegian corridor, transporting Norwegian supplies to Germany.
  • Ukrainian corridor, transporting Ukrainian supplies to Slovakia and Czechia and other countries.
IGI fig032

Figure 32: Grid flows* in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and do not intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

In the 2040 Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for the reference weather year, countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:

1. Countries which export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, the Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Greece.

2. Countries that import more than they export: Belgium, Poland, Czechia, Bulgaria and ­Romania.

3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Italy, Austria, Germany, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and France.

4. Isolated countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.

With the exception of Hungary and Romania, that are integrated in the European hydrogen network through the Slovakia-Hungary-Romania hydrogen route, among the previously interconnected countries, the exporting/importing and transit roles did not change significantly in comparison to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for 2040 (see Figure 26).

High-level results for stressful weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for the stressful weather year is presented in Table 32. Electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe but it is reduced in comparison with the reference weather year. To compensate the reduction of electrolytic hydrogen production, hydrogen import sources, mainly via ship, increase in comparison with the reference weather year. The imports via terminals increase by 10 %. Pipeline imports however hardly increase as the effective import potential is limited by the import capacities of import pipelines (see Table 5) and by EU-internal bottlenecks (see section 4.2.1), there already were high utilisations in the reference weather year, and there is missing hydrogen storage infrastructure.

The consideration of a stressful weather year leads to an approximate rate of 15 % of hydrogen demand curtailment at European level. This is an increase compared to the 12 % for the reference weather year with the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level and a reduction compared to the 18 % for the stressful weather year with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance Advanced IL 2030Advanced IL 2040
H2 produced via electrolysis2651,002
H2 produced using natural gas241170
H2 shipped imports35121
H2 pipeline imports42336
Curtailed H2 demand38298
H2 demand for power production275
Total H2 demand6201,927

Table 32: Supply and demand balance in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 and 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 33 shows the distribution of electrolytic hydrogen production in the different European countries for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2040 assessment under stressful weather conditions.

While keeping the same overall distribution as in the reference case, the electrolytic production was reduced all over Europe.

IGI fig033

Figure 33: Distribution of electrolytic hydrogen production from natural gas in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Figure 34 shows the distribution of natural-gas based hydrogen production in the different European countries for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2040 assessment under stressful weather conditions.

No significant change was observed in comparison to the reference weather year presented in Figure 31.

IGI fig034

Figure 34: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the advanced infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT14,2803,139045,604
BE6,83610,03743,78185,407
BG3444,982012,712
CZ5,8353,97002,614
CY00046,404
DE161,80541,146146,590548,308
DK39,9840031,337
EE036603,128
ES184,7794,66718,432156,348
FI148,2032,252085,318
FR104,49511,4259,456166,517
GR21,9823,154038,538
HR2,7243,44008,168
HU3,4585,535026,496
IE13,0440014,439
IT24,6497,759148,695127,210
LT13,4415,207022,242
LU348009,772
LV0004,042
MT0001,475
NL69,24328,07247,369126,569
PL15,22119,3596,439134,042
PT13,6192,081019,628
RO3,0474,572037,722
SE74,3211,966071,263
SI2,119005,822
SK072738,5279,549
UK79,8956,412091,428

Table 33: Distribution of hydrogen production, imported hydrogen and demand per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

When comparing Figure 32 with Figure 35, most European countries show the same behaviour in terms of being a net exporter, a net importer or a transit country for the stressful as for the reference weather year. As expected under stressful climatic conditions, corridors based mainly on electrolytic production will see their exporting role slightly reduced due to the lower availability of RES (i. e., Iberian and Nordic corridors).

Consequently, also the transit through countries along these routes is reduced (e. g., transit through Baltic countries). On the contrary, countries with access to import terminals will increase imports via ship for own consumption and transit. In addition, imports via pipeline from Ukrainian and North African corridors slightly increase their imports up to the maximum capability, determined by supply potentials and infrastructure bottlenecks.

IGI fig035

Figure 35: Grid flows* in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and do not intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

4.1.2.1 IGI indicator 1: Hydrogen market clearing price spreads for reference weather year

Overview: Hydrogen market clearing prices per country

IGI fig036

Figure 36: Average of the hourly hydrogen market clearing prices per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 (unit: €/MWh).

The increase of hydrogen demand considered in the 2040 assessment leads to a general increase of average hydrogen market clearing prices in Europe when compared to the 2030 assessment, as represented in Figure 36. The fundamental reasons are explained in section 4.1.1.1 The Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level considers a significant increase of import terminal capacities (see Table 6 in section 1.1.2), increasing the overall availability of shipped hydrogen imports.

Despite having lower overall hydrogen demand curtailment in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level, hydrogen market clearing prices in most European countries are higher than in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level for 2040 and lower in some countries like Poland. This relates to the improved connectivity that enables more countries to compete for the hydrogen supply options, maximising the overall socio-economic welfare that includes (among others) the surplus of all the hydrogen consumers as well as the surplus of the hydrogen producers.

The price formation in the DHEM is based on the merit order of hydrogen production (see ­section 1.2.1). Several price groups stand out, while a signification correlation is understood here as a correlation above 0.7:

1. Portugal, Spain, France-South region: Portugal and Spain are producers and net exporters of electrolytic hydrogen from RES to other countries. While the France-South region is sufficiently connected to the Iberian peninsula, price spreads appear with other groups of (regions of) countries due to an internal bottleneck in France. The prices in this group show no significant correlation with the prices in other groups.

2. France-Southwest region: The prices in this group show no significant correlation with the prices in other groups. The group exists due to bottlenecks within France.

3. France-North region: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 4, 5, 6, 7, 11. The group exists due to bottlenecks within France.

4. France, Belgium-Mons region: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 5, 6, 7, 10, 11. The group exists due to bottlenecks within France and Belgium.

5. Belgium, the Netherlands: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11. The group exists due to bottlenecks with France and Germany.

6. Denmark: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 4, 5, 7, 10, 11. The group exists due to a bottleneck from Denmark to Germany.

7. Germany, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia-East region, Slovakia-West region: The group grew by Slovakia-East and Slovakia-West regions in comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11. The group exists due to bottlenecks from France to Germany, from Belgium to Germany, from Denmark to Germany, from Italy to Austria, from Slovakia to Hungary, from Germany to Finland and Sweden, and from ­Germany to Poland.

8. Italy: While being connected to Austria, the bottleneck between Italy and Austria is so dominant that Italy has no correlation with the prices in other groups.

9. Poland-North region, Poland-South region: This group grew by the Poland-South region in comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level.

10. Sweden, Finland: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 11. The group exists due to a bottleneck between Sweden/Finland and Germany and a bottleneck between Finland and Estonia.

11. Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania: The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10. The group exists due to a bottleneck between Finland and Estonia as well as bottlenecks from Lithuania to Poland and within Poland.

12. Ireland, the United Kingdom: Isolated countries without significant price correlations but with average prices below 100 €/MWh.

13. Greece, Bulgaria: Countries showing significant price correlation, jointly isolated from the other European countries.

14. Croatia (only connected to Bosnia), Slovenia, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Malta: Isolated countries without significant price correlations (except for Croatia and Slovenia due to a similar national hydrogen production constellation) and with average prices above 100 €/MWh.

The IGI indicator 1 in the 2040 assessment of the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level reveals the same borders that were identified in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for 2040.

BorderThreshold 1: Absolute average hourly hydrogen market clearing price spread above 4 €/MWhThreshold 2: More than 40 days with hydrogen market clearing price spread above 20 €/MWh
DEh2 – DKh224155
DEh2 – FIh218114
DEh2 – ITh231206
DEh2 – PLh2N45271
DEh2 – PLh2S45271
DEh2 – SEh218114
FIh2 – EEh21597
FRh2 – FRh2S49319
FRh2 – FRh2SW31183
FRh2 – ITh232214
FRh2S – FRh2SW57265
HUh2 – ATh244271
HUh2 – HRh231207
HUh2 – SKh2E44271
ITh2 – ATh231206
ITh2 – HRh249288
LTh2 – PLh2N42263
NLh2 – UKh258309
PLh2S – CZh245271
PLh2S – SKh2E45271
ROh2 – BGh222129
SIh2 – HRh21145
SKh2E – PLh2S45271
UKh2 – BEh258309
UKh2 – IEh225133

Table 34: List of borders in the advanced hydrogen infrastructure level that exceed (at least one of) the thresholds ­defined for IGI indicator 1 in 2040.

4.1.2.2 IGI indicator 2.1: Hydrogen demand curtailment for reference ­weather year

As explained in section 1.2.2, this IGI indicator assesses infrastructure gaps by quantifying hydrogen demand curtailments at individual nodes during the reference weather year, assuming no disruptions of infrastructures or of supply sources. It involves a multi-step simulation process integrating DHEM and DGM3 outputs to evaluate the combined curtailments across nodes. The assessment is performed for the advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040, showing the effects of matured infrastructure in 2040.

Figure 34 and Table 35 show yearly average curtailment rates of hydrogen demand in the Zone 2 nodes of different European countries. For countries where the hydrogen market is divided into several sub-zones (i. e., nodes), the curtailment rate in the different sub-zones is presented. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded in the map to indicate levels relative to the set threshold: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not above it.

3 This draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report only includes the simulation results of the DHEM.

IGI fig037

Figure 37: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the advanced hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2040 for reference year (unit: %).

Country/RegionDemand Curtailment (%)Threshold passed
ATh27.74YES
BEh25.33YES
BEh2Mo13.51YES
BGh238.32YES
CYh2100YES
CZh217.9YES
DEh214.40YES
DKh220.9YES
EEh29.22YES
ESh22.05YES
FIh25.91YES
FIh2N2.75YES
FIh2S2.25YES
FRh28.87YES
FRh2S3.11YES
FRh2SW3.23YES
GRh247.14YES
HRh227.71YES
Country/RegionDemand Curtailment (%)Threshold passed
HUh25.07YES
IEh28.4YES
ITh20.77YES
LTh29.49YES
LUh295.56YES
LVh215.69YES
MTh2100YES
NLh26.87YES
PLh2N23.18YES
PLh2S57.68YES
PTh24.31YES
ROh249.06YES
SEh24.35YES
SIh256.82YES
SKh2E1.82YES
SKh2W3.72YES
UKh23.84YES

Table 35: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year and check of the threshold of IGI indicator 2.1 (unit: %).

All European countries and regions overshoot the threshold of 0 % for IGI indicator 2.1 under the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040. However, differences in the hydrogen curtailment rates between nodes are related to the level of infrastructure development and supply availability. In comparison with IGI indicator 1, this IGI indicator focusses on the availability of supplies.

As detailed in Figure 37, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 5 %: Spain, Finland-North region, Finland-South region, France-South region, France-Southwest region, Italy, Portugal, Sweden, Slovakia-East, Slovakia-West, the United Kingdom.

2. Rates between 5 % and 20 %: Austria, Belgium, Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, Germany, Estonia, Finland, France, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, the Netherlands.

3. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Bulgaria, Denmark, Greece, Croatia, Poland-North, Romania.

4. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Luxembourg, Poland-South.

5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta.

Without the infrastructure already considered in the hydrogen infrastructure level, the overall hydrogen demand curtailment would be higher.

While hydrogen demand curtailment rates decrease in newly connected countries and regions and the overall hydrogen demand curtailment in Europe decreases compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, the curtailment rates in several countries and regions increase slightly, as other, newly connected countries and regions are supplied instead.

Considering group 1, in comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, improved infrastructure could especially enhance the curtailment situation of the France-Southwest region (11.5 % to 3 %).

Within group 2, especially Hungary could benefit from its new interconnection in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level (75 % to 5 %).

Countries and regions of group 3 see the most significant reduction in the Poland-North region (50 % to 23 %) due to additional capacities in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level as well as in Romania (90 % to 49 %) due to its new interconnection with Hungary. Here, Hungary is acting as a transit country for hydrogen it receives from ­Slovakia.

In group 4, advanced infrastructure projects mitigate curtailment in Poland-South.

Malta and Cyprus, representing group 5, remain fully curtailed due to their geographic isolation within the European hydrogen market and have no hydrogen production assets.

In the Poland-North Region, France and Czechia, on top of the curtailments observed in Zone 2 nodes as described in the paragraphs above, hydrogen demand curtailments can be observed in Zone 1 that increase during the winter months.

4.1.2.3 IGI indicator 2.2: Hydrogen demand curtailment for stressful weather year

Threshold 1: Average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rate above 3 %

The 2.2 IGI indicator shows the yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in the Zone 2 nodes of various European countries for 2040, simulated under a stressful weather year. This weather scenario assumes adverse conditions, such as reduced wind and solar energy availability, which directly impacts hydrogen production.

For countries with hydrogen markets divided into multiple sub-zones (i. e., nodes), curtailment rates are depicted individually for each sub-zone on the map. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded to indicate levels relative to the set threshold 1: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not.

IGI fig038

Figure 38: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year (unit: %).

Country nodeDemand Curtailment (%)
ATh29.09
BEh25.41
BEh2Mo20.87
BGh237.97
CYh2100.00
CZh222.83
DEh220.17
DKh226.57
EEh217.79
ESh22.29
FIh211.38
FIh2N5.94
FIH2S4.97
FRh213.67
FRh2S4.86
FRh2SW4.99
GRh246.53
HRh229.54
Country nodeDemand Curtailment (%)
HUh25.19
IEh29.54
ITh20.43
LTh215.65
LUh295.89
LVh226.98
MTh2100.00
NLh27.84
PLh2N31.93
PLh2S61.94
PTh26.10
ROh252.78
SEh29.41
SIh264.42
SKh2E1.06
SKh2W2.39
UKh25.97

Table 36: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2040 for stressful weather year and check of threshold 1 of IGI indicator 2.2 (unit: %).

Countries and (regions of countries) can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

Rates below 3 %: Slovakia-East, Slovakia-West, Spain, Italy.

Rates between 3 % and 20 %: Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, Finland-North region, Finland-South region, France, France-South region, France-Southwest region, Hungary, Ireland, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, the United Kingdom.

Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Belgium-Mons Region, Bulgaria, Czechia, Germany, Denmark, Greece, Croatia, Latvia, Poland-North region.

Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Luxembourg, Poland-South region, Romania, Slovenia.

Full curtailment of 100 %: Malta, Cyprus.

Compared with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 1 grows by the Slovakia-West region, reducing its hydrogen demand curtailment below the threshold of IGI indicator 2.2.

Threshold 2: hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 5 % for at least one month per year

All the countries and regions that exceed threshold 1 also exceeded threshold 2.

4.2 Comparison between PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level

4.2.1 Maximum utilisation of interconnectors

Table 37 displays the maximum utilisation rates of hydrogen interconnections for both hydrogen infrastructure levels in 2040 for the reference weather year. As stated in section 1.1, some countries are completely isolated from the hydrogen infrastructure:

  • Countries and regions that are isolated in both hydrogen infrastructure levels: Slovenia, ­Ireland, the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Malta, France-Southwest region, Poland-South region, Luxembourg. Bulgaria and Greece are interconnected with each other but isolated from the main backbone.
  • Countries that are only isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level: Hungary, Romania. Bosnia and Croatia are interconnected with each other in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level but isolated from the main backbone.
InterconnectionStated directionReverse directionComments
PCI/PMI ILADV ILPCI/PMI ILADV IL
ATh2 DEh2100100100100No bottleneck, as alternative route (e. g., through SK and CZ) still has free capacities.
ATh2 IB-ITh210045100100Capacity from IT to AT is a bottleneck.
ATh2 IB-SKh2W1001009487
BAh2 HRh200The low utilisation is caused by low hydrogen supply to these jointly isolated countries, so BA and HR always need hydrogen supply themselves if the other country needs it.
BEh2 DEh2100100100100
BEH2Mo FRh2100100100100Capacity from FR to BE is a bottleneck.
BEH2Mo FRh2N00100100Capacity from FR-North to BE is a bottleneck.
BEh2 NLh2100100100100No bottleneck, as alternative route (e. g., through DE) still has free capacities.
BEh2Mo FRh2Va003936The flow direction is from FR to BE.
BGh2 GRh2005346The flow direction is from GR to BG.
CZh2 DEh250504940
DEh2 DKh25987100100Capacity from DK to DE is a bottleneck.
DEh2 FRh2100100100100Capacity from FR to DE is a bottleneck.
DEh2 NLh21001009299.9
DEh2 PLh2N10093Capacity from DE to PL is a bottleneck.
DEh2 PLh2nbc100100100100Capacity from DE to PL is a bottleneck.
DEh2ba DEh20
DEh2bp DEh2100Allows import through DEbp terminal in ADV IL.
DEh2bp DEh2ba0
EEh2 FIh2S00100100Capacity from FI to EE is a bottleneck (as alternative route via DE is also congested at the same time).
EEh2 LVh2969600
ESh2 FRh2S1001008044Capacity from FR-South to other nodes in FR is the dominant bottleneck.
ESh2 PTh2612400The flow direction is from ES to PT.
FIh2 FIh2Al63564520
FIh2 FIh2N10.321Very high capacities set in the model as this arc is not representing a bottleneck.
FIh2 FIh2S2133Very high capacities set in the model as this arc is not representing a bottleneck.
FIh2Al DEh2100100Capacity from FI/SE to DE is a bottleneck (as alternative route via EE is also congested at the same time).
FIh2Al SEh21354747
FIh2N SEh29455100100
FRh2 FRh2S9154100100Capacity from FR-South to FR is a bottleneck that limits supplies from ES.
FRh2 FRh2Va2911413
HUh2 IB-SKh2C41100Capacity from SK to HU is a bottleneck.
HUh2 ROh28814Utilisation rate from HU to RO is affected by bottleneck from SK to HU.
IB-ITh2 ITh2008484
IB-SKh2C SKh2E7310050
IB-SKh2C SKh2W10064638
IB-SKh2E SKh2E1005000
IB-SKh2W CZh2100100
IB-SKh2W SKh2W204510064
LTh2 LVh25510092
LTh2 PLh2nbc1009400
PLh2N PLh2S30
PLh2nbc PLh2N0100Capacity from PLnbc to PL-North is a bottleneck.
PLh2S PLh2nbc100100
DZh2 ITh2100100
LH2_Tk_BE BEh2100100
LH2_Tk_DE DEh2100100
LH2_Tk_DEbp DEh2bp0100Pipeline in ADV IL allows usage of import terminal.
LH2_Tk_FRn FRh2N100100
LH2_Tk_NL NLh2100100
LH2_Tk_PLN PLh2N100New terminal in ADV IL.
MAh2 ESh2100100
UAh2 IB-SKh2E100100
Y-NOh2 DEh2100100

Table 37: Maximum utilisation rates of interconnections in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and in the ­Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for the reference weather year (unit: %).

InterconnectionStated directionReverse directionComments
PCI/PMI ILADV ILPCI/PMI ILADV IL
ATh2 DEh2100100100100Increase of max. utilisation from DE to AT.
ATh2 IB-ITh23144100100
ATh2 IB-SKh2W7810010094Max. utilisation from AT to SK reaches 100 %.
BAh2 HRh200
BEh2 DEh2100100100Max. utilisation from BE to DE reaches 100 %.
BEh2Mo FRh292100100100Max. utilisation from BE to FR reaches 100 %.
BEh2Mo FRh2N00100100
BEh2 NLh299100100100
BEh2Mo FRh2Va003737
BGh2 GRh2005555
CZh2 DEh250504836
DEh2 DKh28787100100
DEh2 FRh2100100100100
DEh2 NLh2100100100100Max. utilisation from NL to DE reaches 100 %.
DEh2 PLh2N100100
DEh2 PLh2nbc100100100100
DEh2ba DEh20
DEh2bp DEh2100
DEh2bp DEh2ba0
EEh2 FIh2S00100100
EEh2 LVh21009700
ESh2 FRh2S1001007980Dependence of Iberian hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from FR to ES to decrease HCR in ES and PT.
ESh2 PTh260604747
FIh2 FIh2Al64644526
FIh2 FIh2N2112
FIh2 FIh2S2244
FIh2Al DEh2100100
FIh2Al SEh214144747
FIh2N SEh29697100100
FRh2 FRh2S9091100100
FRh2 FRh2Va31311314
HUh2 IB-SKh2C41100
HUh2 ROh28814
IB-ITh2 ITh2008484Max. utilisation reaches 100 %.
IB-SKh2C SKh2E7310050
IB-SKh2C SKh2W10064738
IB-SKh2E SKh2E1005000
IB-SKh2W CZh2100100
IB-SKh2W SKh2W204410064
LTh2 LVh25510092
LTh2 PLh2nbc10010000
PLh2N PLh2S30
PLh2nbc PLh2N100100
PLh2S PLh2nbc2722
DZh2 ITh2100100
LH2_Tk_BE BEh2100100
LH2_Tk_DE DEh2100100
LH2_Tk_DEbp DEh2bp0100
LH2_Tk_FRn FRh2N100100
LH2_Tk_NL NLh2100100
LH2_Tk_PLN PLh2N100
MAh2 ESh2100100
UAh2 IB-SKh2E100100
Y-NOh2 DEh2100100

Table 38: Maximum utilisation rates of interconnections in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and in the ­Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for the stressful weather year (unit: %).

Concerning pipelines connecting offshore electrolysers, the following observations are made:

  • Offshore electrolyser node in the Netherlands: A share of the national electrolyser capacity of the Netherlands is allocated to an offshore node. Because it is connected only by capacity from a less-advanced project (HyONE) which is not taken in account in either of the ­ENTSOG infrastructure levels in this report, Offshore electrolyser node in the Netherlands: A share of the national electrolyser capacity of the Netherlands is allocated to an offshore node. Because it is connected only by capacity from a less-advanced project (HyONE) which is not taken in account in either of the ­ENTSOG infrastructure levels in this report, the offshore electrolysers are not used in the simulations. This leads to unused renewable hydrogen production offshore. The order of magnitude of this unused renewable hydrogen production offshore would have led to a maximum utilisation rate of 100 % when this less advanced project would be taken into account.
  • Offshore electrolysis in Germany: The offshore electrolysis in Germany (namely in the Northern Sea) is connected to the mainland through the PCI project AquaDuctus. Therefore, the project capacity foreseen for national production is included in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, as well as in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level. Maximum utilisation rate will be calculated in the final IGI report as described in the TYNDP 2024 Annex D2 based on the enabled electrolyser capacity and infrastructure level.

4.2.2 Analysis with hypothetical infrastructure approach

This section will be produced after the public consultation of the TYNDP 2024 Infrastructure Gaps Identification report in line with the methodology described by steps 2 to 3 in section 6 of the TYNDP 2024 Annex D2.

4.2.3 Identification of projects that solved or mitigated ­infrastructure gaps

Solved infrastructure gaps in Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level compared to PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level

The additional projects of the advanced infrastructure level could solve the following indications of regional hydrogen infrastructure gaps:

  • Borders as captured by IGI indicator 1: None.
  • Countries and regions as captured by IGI indicator 2.1: None.
  • Countries and regions as captured by IGI indicator 2.2: Slovakia-West.

Not all IGI indicators could be solved from a regional perspective even if the advanced hydrogen projects provide benefits.

Identification of advanced, non-PCI/PMI ­projects responsible for solving hydrogen ­infrastructure gaps by addressing hydrogen infrastructure bottlenecks

The following advanced, non-PCI/PMI projects contributed to mitigate the identified infrastructure gaps in the 2040 assessment:

  • Pipeline imports: All pipeline imports available in both infrastructure levels.
    • Slovakia to Hungary (HU/SK hydrogen corridor and SK-HU H2 corridor)
    • Netherlands to Germany (H2Coastlink, IP Elten/Zevenaar – Cologne, Hyperlink and H2ercules Network North-West)
    • Germany to Poland (Pomeranian Green Hydrogen Cluster)
    • Hungary to Romania (Giurgiu Nădlac hydrogen corridor and HU/RO hydrogen corridor)
    • Romania to Hungary (Giurgiu Nădlac hydrogen corridor and HU/RO hydrogen corridor)
  • Import terminals
    • New Ammonia terminal in Gdansk and Hydrogen Highway – Northern Section
    • Increased terminal capacity in the Netherlands (Eemshaven H2)
  • Hydrogen storages
    • Hydrogen storage projects in Germany (RWE H2 Storage Gronau-Epe, UST Hydrogen Storage Krummhörn, RWE H2 Storage Xanten, EWE Hydrogen Storage Huntorf, EWE Hydrogen Storage Jemgum, RWE H2 Storage Staßfurt)
    • Hydrogen storage project in the France-Southwest region of France (HySoW storage)

Besides the projects listed above, the projects included in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level also contribute to the solving and mitigation of infrastructure gaps.