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Picture courtesy of terranets bw

2 Resilient, flexible and ­future-ready energy system

The TYNDP 2024 System Assessment confirms the EU’s steady progress toward decarbonisation, supported by renewable energy integration and declining fossil fuel use. While market integration brings efficiency gains, delays in infrastructure development may lead to congestion, affecting ­sustainability, competition and diversification. Coordinated action among TSOs, regulators and policymakers remains essential to build a resilient, ­flexible, and ­future-ready energy system.

Role of natural gas infrastructure in the EU’s energy system

Natural gas infrastructure remains essential in the EU’s evolving energy system, particularly as the EU pursues its climate goals under the European Green Deal. The recent Clean Industrial Deal comes to complement these ambitions, with specific focus on decarbonising energy-intensive industries, as production of chemicals, steel and other metals. At the same time, security of supply is essential in reaching these goals, tested in three time frames: the whole year, a 2-week Cold Dunkelflaute, and a Peak Demand situation. A coordinated approach, integrating electricity and gases – including ­natural gas, biomethane, synthetic methane and hydrogen – is critical to ensuring cost-effective and ­efficient infrastructure development in a technology-­neutral way.

In this context, the role played by gas infrastructure in providing the capacities needed for the electricity sector to back up variable renewable energy sources (RES) is pivotal.

It helps mitigate electricity price hikes, leading to lower costs for industries and society as a whole. The upcoming “Grids Package”, expected in 2026, may further contribute to such cross-sector integration, through further optimised network planning mechanisms and support for improved technical solutions.

In addition, repurposing existing natural gas infrastructure to transport hydrogen is expected to significantly contribute to the future European hydrogen network. This process must be planned transparently and in coordination between operators, while safeguarding natural gas security of supply and fulfilling regulatory requirements. An EU-wide security of supply assessment should complement analyses to evaluate the impact of repurposing on system resilience.

Supply adequacy and sustainability

Conventional natural gas production in Europe is expected to decline steadily. However, it will be ­compensated by increasing volumes of biomethane contributing to the energy mix, in line with decarbonisation objectives. As renewable gas production scales up, natural gas infrastructure will continue to play a key role in supporting system flexibility and ensuring supply security throughout the transition.

Underground gas storage remains a crucial asset for balancing supply and demand, especially ­during periods of peak use. While a decline in methane demand reduces the overall reliance on storage, its strategic function remains essential, helping to manage seasonal fluctuations, strengthening ­resilience in the event of supply disruptions and providing flexibility and resilience of electricity grid at peak time or periods of low RES infeed.

Independence from Russia

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia on 24 February 2022 led to a major overhaul of energy policy objectives in terms of energy security and diversification of supply. The future development of gas infrastructure must consider the ongoing decarbonisation trend and a need to phase out Russian gas by  2027.

The EC Communication on a roadmap will be followed by legislative proposals in June 2025. Based on the roadmap1, the EC will propose that the phasing out of gas, under existing long-term or spot contracts, ends at the latest by 2027.