Picture courtesy of Reganosa
3 Assessment for 2030
This section describes the evolution of the IGI indicators for the reference weather year (i. e., 1995) and the stressful weather year (i. e., 2009) for the analysed infrastructure levels (i. e., PCI/PMI and Advanced hydrogen infrastructure levels) for the simulation year 2030.
3.1 Infrastructure Gaps Identification
In 2030, the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level’s extra-EU imports are limited to shipped imports through the PCI reception terminals in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The overall contribution of shipped hydrogen imports are rather limited when compared to the overall EU hydrogen demand. Therefore, in this infrastructure level, European hydrogen demand is mostly met by indigenous production through electrolysis or hydrogen production using natural gas which are not enough to fully cover the hydrogen demand. Therefore, curtailed hydrogen demand is significant.
In 2030, in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level, Europe will receive imports also from North Africa contributing to the reduction of hydrogen demand curtailment via higher utilisation rates of interconnected supply corridors.
3.1.1 Assessment of PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level
High-level results for reference weather year
The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year is presented in Table 7.
As detailed in Table 7, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe. This assessment results in an approximate share of 8.3 % of hydrogen demand curtailment in Europe.
Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance | PCI/PMI IL |
---|---|
H2 produced via electrolysis | 310 |
H2 produced using natural gas | 229 |
H2 shipped imports | 29 |
H2 pipeline imports | 0 |
Curtailed H2 demand | 52 |
H2 demand for power production | 2 |
Total H2 demand | 620 |
Table 7: Supply and demand balance in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: TWh/y).
Figure 3 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment. The countries with highest electrolytic hydrogen production are Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Germany. Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production.
This is related to the intra-country assumptions, which can be summarized as it follows:
- Consideration of electrolytic hydrogen production from dedicated RES in Spain.
- Consideration of dedicated electrolytic production to satisfy regional hydrogen demand within the country (i. e., Zone 1). This is the case for Austria, Spain, Finland, Croatia, Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom.
- Consideration of multiple production sub-zones within the main system of a country to reflect different geographical production areas and/or demand areas and/or storage areas stemming from internal transport bottlenecks. This is the case for Denmark, Italy, France, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.
Figure 3: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Figure 4: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Country | H2 Production via electrolysis | H2 Production using natural gas | H2 extra-EU imports by pipeline & ship | H2 demand |
---|---|---|---|---|
AT | 1,130 | 3,695 | 0 | 10,901 |
BE | 1,226 | 15,184 | 9,793 | 30,970 |
BG | 40 | 4,994 | 0 | 3,768 |
CZ | 232 | 1,625 | 0 | 6,849 |
CY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 329 |
DE | 35,593 | 41,032 | 5,255 | 154,829 |
DK | 17,611 | 0 | 0 | 13,241 |
EE | 0 | 96 | 0 | 540 |
ES | 89,011 | 12,908 | 0 | 61,128 |
FI | 46,899 | 4,611 | 0 | 34,184 |
FR | 16,227 | 18,865 | 0 | 47,735 |
GR | 266 | 3,031 | 0 | 6,482 |
HR | 89 | 3,194 | 0 | 3,283 |
HU | 243 | 7,467 | 0 | 9,312 |
IE | 5,002 | 0 | 0 | 6,222 |
IT | 8,139 | 23,559 | 0 | 26,504 |
LT | 1,411 | 1,224 | 0 | 3,977 |
LU | 197 | 0 | 0 | 2,695 |
LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 997 |
MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 |
NL | 14,014 | 42,074 | 13,943 | 59,194 |
PL | 4,819 | 22,456 | 0 | 52,416 |
PT | 5,455 | 426 | 0 | 2,922 |
RO | 715 | 4,545 | 0 | 12,359 |
SE | 35,929 | 4,878 | 0 | 23,107 |
SI | 342 | 0 | 0 | 1,544 |
SK | 0 | 588 | 0 | 2,767 |
UK | 25,716 | 12,877 | 0 | 41,537 |
Table 8: Distribution of hydrogen production, demand and hydrogen imports per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Intra-EU cross-border flows emerge between different European countries due to limitations of available supplies and associated costs. Figure 5 shows these flows.
Two main transport corridors emerge in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment, one from the Iberian Peninsula towards Germany through France and one from Nordic countries to Germany.
This result is explained by the fact that these corridors are connecting countries with high availability of supply with other countries where hydrogen supplies might be limited or more expensive.
In addition, among the interconnected countries within the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, Germany shows the highest demand and at the same time enables transport of supply to its neighbouring countries, acting as a hydrogen hub.
Figure 5: Grid flows* in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
* Grid flows refer to simulations results and do not intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III.
In the 2030 PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for the reference weather year, countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:
1. Countries that export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Bulgaria.
2. Countries that import more than they export: Belgium, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Lithuania.
3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
4. Isolated countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland1 and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.
While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.
1 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.
High-level results for stressful weather year
The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the stressful weather year is presented in Table 9. As detailed in Table 9, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe but it is reduced in comparison with the reference weather year.
This assessment results in an approximate share of 11.1 % of curtailed hydrogen demand at European level. This represents an increase by 3 percentage points in comparison with the reference weather year.
Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance | PCI/PMI IL |
---|---|
H2 produced via electrolysis | 270 |
H2 produced using natural gas | 245 |
H2 shipped imports | 36 |
H2 pipeline imports | 0 |
Curtailed H2 demand | 69 |
H2 demand for power production | 2 |
Total H2 demand | 619 |
Table 9: Supply and demand balance in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: TWh/y).
Figure 6 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment. The countries with highest electrolytic hydrogen production are Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Germany.
Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production. This is related to the intra-country assumptions, which is explained in section 3.1.1.
Figure 6: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Figure 7: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Country | H2 Production via electrolysis | H2 Production using natural gas | H2 extra-EU imports by pipeline & ship | H2 demand |
---|---|---|---|---|
AT | 948 | 3,880 | 0 | 10,901 |
BE | 1,026 | 15,905 | 12,226 | 30,970 |
BG | 45 | 4,992 | 0 | 3,768 |
CZ | 212 | 1,625 | 0 | 6,849 |
CY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 329 |
DE | 33,142 | 44,495 | 6,548 | 154,501 |
DK | 14,989 | 0 | 0 | 13,241 |
EE | 0 | 96 | 0 | 540 |
ES | 80,902 | 14,933 | 0 | 61,128 |
FI | 38,317 | 5,868 | 0 | 34,184 |
FR | 13,205 | 20,057 | 0 | 47,735 |
GR | 244 | 3,032 | 0 | 6,482 |
HR | 101 | 3,182 | 0 | 3,283 |
HU | 200 | 7,460 | 0 | 9,312 |
IE | 4,730 | 0 | 0 | 6,222 |
IT | 7,359 | 24,881 | 0 | 26,504 |
LT | 1,172 | 1,224 | 0 | 3,977 |
LU | 173 | 0 | 0 | 2,695 |
LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 997 |
MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 |
NL | 12,384 | 44,246 | 17,859 | 59,020 |
PL | 4,064 | 22,456 | 0 | 52,271 |
PT | 4,894 | 426 | 0 | 2,922 |
RO | 672 | 4,545 | 0 | 12,359 |
SE | 28,498 | 5,536 | 0 | 23,107 |
SI | 302 | 0 | 0 | 1,544 |
SK | 0 | 588 | 0 | 2,767 |
UK | 22,190 | 15,076 | 0 | 41,537 |
Table 10: Distribution of hydrogen production per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Intra-European cross-border flows emerge between different European countries due to limitations of available supplies and associated costs. Figure 8 shows resulting yearly average flows under stressful weather conditions.
In comparison with the reference weather year, the export from countries that to a large extent base their hydrogen production on RES is reduced. This reduces the usage of the Iberian and of the Nordic corridor.
At the same time, the import terminals must be used to a higher extent, increasing exports of countries and regions with such terminals. Germany maintains its role as hydrogen hub. Despite the overall reduction of electrolytic hydrogen production, under stressful weather conditions the countries with the highest electrolytic hydrogen production follow the same distribution as in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year.
Figure 8: Grid flows* in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
* Grid flows refer to simulations results and don’t intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).
In the 2030 PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for the stressful weather year, countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:
1. Countries that export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Portugal.
2. Countries that import more than they export: Poland, Czechia, Greece, Lithuania.
3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
4. Isolated countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland2 and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.
While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.
2 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.
3.1.1.1 IGI indicator 1: Hydrogen market clearing price spreads for reference weather year
Overview: Hydrogen market clearing prices per country
The price formation in the DHEM is based on the merit order of hydrogen production (see section 1.2.1). Several price groups stand out, while a signification correlation is understood here as a correlation above 0.7:
1. Portugal, Spain, France-South region: Portugal and Spain are producers and net exporters of electrolytic hydrogen from RES to other countries. While the France-South region is sufficiently connected to the Iberian Peninsula, price spreads appear with other groups of countries due to an internal bottleneck in France. The prices in this group show a significant correlation with the prices in groups 2, 3 and 4.
2. France-Southwest region: Local undersupply and isolated from other French regions. The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 1, 3 and 4.
3. Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Italy: Well interconnected countries that as group have own import terminals and national hydrogen production and are in the centre of two main supply corridors. The prices in this group show a nearly perfect correlation with the prices in group 4 and a significant correlation with the prices in groups 1 and 2.
4. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: Composed of net exporting countries Sweden and Finland as well as countries that are well interconnected without bottlenecks. The prices are very similar to the prices in group 3 as the bottlenecks between the two groups play a minor role. The prices in this group show a nearly perfect correlation with the prices in group 3 and a significant correlation with the prices in groups 1 and 2.
5. Ireland, the United Kingdom, Croatia, Poland-South region: Isolated (regions of) countries without significant price correlations but with average prices below 100 €/MWh.
6. Greece, Bulgaria: Countries showing significant price correlation, jointly isolated from the other European countries.
7. Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Slovakia, Malta: Isolated countries without significant price correlations (except for Hungary and Slovenia due to a similar national hydrogen production constellation) and with average prices above 100 €/MWh.
The price correlations listed above are enabled by the infrastructure projects already considered in this hydrogen infrastructure level. However, price differences that led to the identification of the groups listed above are not necessarily describing an infrastructure gap. For this identification of infrastructure gaps, the thresholds of IGI indicator 1 are used.
Hydrogen market clearing price spreads
If one of the two thresholds of IGI indicator 1 is passed, a regional hydrogen infrastructure gap is assumed to be identified (see section 1.2.1)
Table 11 lists the borders for which Threshold 1 and/or Threshold 2 were passed. In this case, both thresholds were always passed at the same borders.
Border | Threshold 1: Absolute average hourly hydrogen market clearing price spread above 4 €/MWh | Threshold 2: More than 40 days with hydrogen market clearing price spread above 20 €/MWh |
---|---|---|
DEh2 – PLh2S | 26 | 169 |
FRh2 – FRh2S | 26 | 168 |
FRh2 – FRh2SW | 12 | 66 |
FRh2S – FRh2SW | 19 | 99 |
HUh2 – ATh2 | 32 | 233 |
HUh2 – HRh2 | 80 | 365 |
HUh2 – ROh2 | 5 | 43 |
HUh2 – SKh2E | 5 | 43 |
ITh2 – HRh2 | 50 | 293 |
NLh2 – UKh2 | 42 | 228 |
PLh2N – PLh2S | 25 | 167 |
PLh2S – CZh2 | 26 | 169 |
PLh2S – SKh2E | 25 | 143 |
SIh2 – HRh2 | 78 | 364 |
SKh2E – PLh2S | 25 | 143 |
SKh2W – ATh2 | 38 | 266 |
SKh2W – CZh2 | 38 | 266 |
UKh2 – BEh2 | 42 | 228 |
UKh2 – IEh2 | 19 | 111 |
Table 11: List of borders in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level that exceed (at least one of) the thresholds defined for IGI indicator 1 in 2030.
3.1.1.2 IGI indicator 2.1: Hydrogen demand curtailment for reference weather year
As explained in section 1.2.2, this IGI indicator assesses infrastructure gaps by quantifying hydrogen demand curtailments at individual nodes during the reference weather year, assuming no disruptions of infrastructures or of supply sources. It involves a multi-step simulation process integrating DHEM and DGM3 outputs to evaluate the combined curtailments across nodes. The assessment is performed for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030.
Figure 10 and Table 12 show yearly average curtailment rates of hydrogen demand in the Zone 2 nodes of different European countries. For countries where the hydrogen market is divided into several sub-zones (i. e., nodes), the curtailment rate in the different sub-zones is presented. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded in the map to indicate levels relative to the set threshold: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not above it.
3 This draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report only includes the simulation results of the DHEM.
H2 Demand Zone | Yearly average curtailment rate (%) | Threshold passed |
---|---|---|
ATh2 | 19.1 | YES |
BEh2 | 0.9 | YES |
BEh2Mo | 24.1 | YES |
BGh2 | 0.0 | NO |
CYh2 | 100.0 | YES |
CZh2 | 27.6 | YES |
DEh2 | 6.5 | YES |
DKh2 | 18.5 | YES |
EEh2 | 7.2 | YES |
ESh2 | 1.2 | YES |
FIh2 | 3.1 | YES |
FIh2N | 2.4 | YES |
FIH2S | 2.0 | YES |
FRh2 | 7.7 | YES |
FRh2S | 0.7 | YES |
FRh2SW | 33.3 | YES |
GRh2 | 33.6 | YES |
HRh2 | 0.0 | NO |
HUh2 | 29.0 | YES |
IEh2 | 19.3 | YES |
ITh2 | 0.1 | YES |
LTh2 | 21.1 | YES |
LUh2 | 92.7 | YES |
LVh2 | 19.7 | YES |
MTh2 | 100.0 | YES |
NLh2 | 0.7 | YES |
PLh2N | 30.9 | YES |
PLh2S | 59.5 | YES |
PTh2 | 8.5 | YES |
ROh2 | 90.9 | YES |
SEh2 | 0.5 | YES |
SIh2 | 76.7 | YES |
SKh2E | 100.0 | YES |
SKh2W | 100.0 | YES |
UKh2 | 14.2 | YES |
Table 12: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year and check of the threshold of IGI indicator 2.1 (unit: %).
In the 2030 assessment of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, hydrogen demand is curtailed all over Europe. However, differences in the hydrogen curtailment rates between nodes are related to the level of infrastructure development and supply availability.
As explained in the description of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level (see section 1.1 and Figure 1), with limited availability of extra-EU supplies, hydrogen demand is satisfied mainly with electrolytic hydrogen production and hydrogen production from natural gas.
Countries with higher availability of supply from those sources or from imports show lower curtailment rates. Only Bulgaria and Croatia hydrogen demand is completely undisrupted and the hydrogen demand curtailment in Italy is very low. All other countries including strong net exporters face (weather-induced) disruptions. In comparison with IGI indicator 1, this IGI indicator focusses on the availability of supplies.
As detailed in Figure 11, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in six different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:
1. Rates below 0.1 %: Bulgaria, Croatia.
2. Rates between 0.1 % and 5 %: Italy, Belgium, Finland, France-South region, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden.
3. Rates between 5 % and 20 %: France, Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Portugal, the United Kingdom.
4. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, France-Southwest region, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland-North region, Greece.
5. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Romania, Poland-South region, Luxembourg.
6. Full curtailment of 100 %: Slovakia, Cyprus, Malta.
Without the infrastructure already considered in the hydrogen infrastructure level, the overall hydrogen demand curtailment would be higher.
All countries of group 1 have high shares of hydrogen produced from natural gas to cover national demand.
Among the countries of group 2, Spain, Sweden and Finland receive a significant share of their supply from national electrolytic hydrogen production, while Belgium, and the Netherlands, have access to extra-EU import capacities. The France-South region benefits from potential supplies from the Iberian Peninsula but also from other parts of France. At the same time, while the average demand curtailment is comparably low, all relevant nodes at certain hours of the year hit very high curtailment rates between 84 % in Spain, 89 % in Germany, and 100 % in the other nodes.
Among the countries of group 3, some countries like Denmark, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Ireland, despite having significant electrolytic hydrogen production compared to the national demand, still cannot cover all demand when RES are not available. In the case of Denmark and Portugal, being peripheric countries, their neighbouring countries (i. e., Germany and Spain) can help to mitigate demand curtailment, whereas in the case of the United Kingdom and Ireland, being isolated from Europe leads to higher curtailment rates. Among the countries of group 3, some countries such as Austria, Estonia, Germany and Latvia, despite being well interconnected, show demand curtailment mainly due to the limited availability of supplies for the EU in general that are then rather consumed closer to the location of production or import. For France, different curtailment rates are observed between the different hydrogen nodes. The France-Southwest region is the area with higher curtailment (i. e., 33.3 %) as it is isolated and strictly depends on local production. Between the other two demand nodes in France (i. e., France and France-South regions) there is 7 % of difference in the demand curtailment due to privileged access of the France-South region to supply from the Iberian Peninsula.
Among the countries of group 4, some countries like Czechia and Lithuania show high curtailment rates (i. e., 27.6 % and 21.1 %), despite being connected to Germany, in case of Czechia and other Baltic Sea countries, in case of Lithuania. This is because both countries need significant imports from their neighbouring countries to satisfy demand while the neighbouring countries at certain periods of time do not have access to surplus supplies for export. In addition, national production in Lithuania represents a higher share of the demand in comparison with the Czech Republic. Greece shows a curtailment rate of 33.3 %, which can be explained by the fact that despite being interconnected with Bulgaria, both countries are isolated from the rest of Europe (see section 1.1 and Figure 1). Lastly, the Belgium-Mons region is designed to be an individual cluster only connected to France (Valenciennes production cluster) and not interconnected to the remaining Belgian grid in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030. Due to this isolated situation, curtailment is significantly higher (i. e., 24.1 %) than in the rest of the country (i. e., 0.9 %).
Group 5 includes countries with very high curtailment rates of up to nearly 100 %. All the countries in this group are fully isolated and rely on national hydrogen supplies, mainly produced from natural gas. This is also the case for the Poland-South region that shows a curtailment rate of almost 60 %, whereas the Poland-North region has a curtailment rate of around 31 % due to higher hydrogen generation in that region.
Group 6 includes only isolated countries that have hydrogen demand but no national hydrogen production assets connected to Zone 2.
In Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and Slovenia, on top of the hydrogen demand curtailments observed in Zone 2 nodes as described in the paragraphs above, hydrogen demand curtailments can be observed in Zone 1. While these curtailments are limited to a few months in Sweden and Finland, it is of relevance in every month in Ireland and reaches up to 86 % in December in Denmark and up to 96 % in December in Slovenia.
3.1.1.3 IGI indicator 2.2: Hydrogen demand curtailment for stressful weather year
Threshold 1: Average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rate above 3 %
Figure 11 and Table 13 show the yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in the Zone 2 nodes of various European countries for 2030, simulated under a stressful weather year. This weather scenario assumes adverse conditions, such as reduced wind and solar energy availability, which directly impacts hydrogen production.
For countries with hydrogen markets divided into multiple sub-zones (i. e., nodes), curtailment rates are depicted individually for each sub-zone on the map. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded to indicate levels relative to the set threshold 1: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not.
H2 Demand Zone | Yearly average curtailment rate (%) | Threshold passed |
---|---|---|
ATh2 | 23.84 | YES |
BEh2 | 0.76 | NO |
BEh2Mo | 36.64 | YES |
BGh2 | 0 | NO |
CYh2 | 100 | YES |
CZh2 | 41.74 | YES |
DEh2 | 11.91 | YES |
DKh2 | 26.94 | YES |
EEh2 | 13.85 | YES |
ESh2 | 2.33 | NO |
FIh2 | 7.97 | YES |
FIh2N | 7.71 | YES |
FIH2S | 6.51 | YES |
FRh2 | 11.94 | YES |
FRh2S | 1.44 | NO |
FRh2SW | 45.34 | YES |
GRh2 | 33.94 | YES |
HRh2 | 0.01 | NO |
HUh2 | 29.94 | YES |
IEh2 | 24.22 | YES |
ITh2 | 0.1 | NO |
LTh2 | 30.19 | YES |
LUh2 | 93.59 | YES |
LVh2 | 32.51 | YES |
MTh2 | 100 | YES |
NLh2 | 0.57 | NO |
PLh2N | 43.21 | YES |
PLh2S | 65.81 | YES |
PTh2 | 12.5 | YES |
ROh2 | 91.4 | YES |
SEh2 | 4.45 | YES |
SIh2 | 79.46 | YES |
SKh2E | 100 | YES |
SKh2W | 100 | YES |
UKh2 | 20.57 | YES |
Table 13: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year and check of threshold 1 of IGI indicator 2.2 (unit: %).
As detailed in Figure 11, countries can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:
1. Rates below 3 %: France-South region, Spain, the Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Belgium, Bulgaria.
2. Rates between 3 % and 20 %: Sweden, Portugal, France, France-North region, Finland, Estonia, Germany.
3. Rates above 20 % and below 50 %: Belgium-Mons, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Hungary, Greece, Denmark, Czechia, Austria, Poland North.
4. Rates above 50 % and below 100 %: Slovenia, Romania, Poland South, Luxembourg.
5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Slovakia, Cyprus, Malta.
Based on Table 13, the countries that have a yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate below 3 % in the stressful weather year are Spain, France-South region, the Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Belgium, and Bulgaria.
The second group of countries includes Sweden, Portugal, France, the France-North region, Finland, Estonia, and Germany. These nations exhibit demand curtailment rates exceeding the defined threshold 1 but remaining at or below 20 %. This trend can be attributed to the composition of the composition of their hydrogen production means. For instance, Sweden, with a demand curtailment rate of 4.95 %, leverages a substantial share of wind and hydropower, ensuring greater stability in its hydrogen supply. Finland is comparable to Sweden, while France demonstrates a 12 % demand curtailment rate, where its reliance on nuclear energy mitigates dependence on fluctuating climatic conditions, enhancing supply availability. Germany benefits from its proximity to multiple supply options as it is in the centre of the Iberian and the Nordic corridor, has own import terminals, and has access to terminals in neighbouring countries.
The third group encompasses Belgium-Mons, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Hungary, Greece, Denmark, Czechia, and Austria. This cohort includes countries like Greece (33.94 %) and Denmark (26.94 %) alongside others such as Czechia and Ireland, which face challenges stemming from their relative isolation within the hydrogen production and distribution topology. Geographic and infrastructural isolation increases reliance on domestically produced hydrogen, particularly from RES. Furthermore, dependency on imports from a single connected country—similarly affected by climatic stress—limits the availability of external hydrogen supplies. In such cases, countries prioritize domestic needs over exports, further constraining the import options for these isolated or peripheric regions.
The fourth group contains Slovenia, Romania, Poland and Luxembourg that show annual average hydrogen demand curtailment rates that exceed 50 % but remain below 100 % under the stressful weather year. The high curtailment rate observed in Luxembourg can be primarily attributed to the absence of interconnections with the neighbouring countries in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in combination with low national hydrogen production options. In Poland, which is divided into a northern region and a southern region, the southern region experiences notably higher curtailment rates under the stressful weather year due to lower hydrogen generation in the Poland-South region than in the Poland-North region. This disparity arises also due to a lack of sufficient PCI infrastructure which, combined with intensified weather impacts, significantly limits the ability to meet hydrogen demand. Romania and Slovenia also encounter substantial curtailments. In both countries, limited infrastructure in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 results in considerable hydrogen demand curtailment, regardless of weather variability. Consequently, while weather conditions play a role, they are not the primary factor in the persistently high curtailment rates observed in these countries.
Full demand curtailment under the stressful weather year has been identified for Slovakia, Malta and Cyprus, as has been the case for the reference weather year. These countries are fully isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 and have no national hydrogen production assets connected to Zone 2.
Threshold 2: hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 5 % for at least one month per year
All the countries and regions that exceed threshold 1 also exceeded threshold 2.
3.1.2 Assessment of Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level
High-level results for reference weather year
In 2030, compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, the advanced infrastructure level considers several new infrastructures (see section 1.1.2): Besides a connection between Algeria and Italy, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are connected to Germany, Poland and Czechia instead of being isolated.
The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year is presented in Table 14. As detailed in Table 14, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe.
This assessment results in an approximate share of 4.3 % of hydrogen demand curtailment in Europe. This is a significant decrease compared to the curtailment rate of 8.3 % for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. Thereby, electrolytic hydrogen production, hydrogen production from natural gas and imports via terminals are all slightly reduced on yearly average as Algerian supply is partially replacing these supplies due to the merit order besides decreasing the hydrogen demand curtailment.
Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance | Advanced IL |
---|---|
H2 produced via electrolysis | 304 |
H2 produced using natural gas | 224 |
H2 shipped imports | 24 |
H2 pipeline imports | 42 |
Curtailed H2 demand | 27 |
H2 demand for power production | 2 |
Total H2 demand | 620 |
Table 14: Supply and demand balance in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: TWh/y).
Figure 12 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment. The countries with highest electrolytic hydrogen production are Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Germany.
Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production. This is related to the intra-country assumptions, which is explained in section 3.1.1.
Figure 12: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Figure 13: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Country | H2 Production via electrolysis | H2 Production using natural gas | H2 extra-EU imports by pipeline & ship | H2 demand |
---|---|---|---|---|
AT | 1,132 | 3,691 | 0 | 10,901 |
BE | 1,152 | 15,236 | 5,057 | 30,970 |
BG | 46 | 4,995 | 0 | 3,768 |
CZ | 237 | 1,625 | 0 | 6,849 |
CY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 329 |
DE | 33,977 | 41,078 | 5,443 | 154,844 |
DK | 16,976 | 0 | 0 | 13,241 |
EE | 0 | 96 | 0 | 540 |
ES | 88,608 | 12,399 | 0 | 61,128 |
FI | 46,746 | 4,553 | 0 | 34,184 |
FR | 15,396 | 18,889 | 0 | 47,735 |
GR | 271 | 3,031 | 0 | 6,482 |
HR | 102 | 3,181 | 0 | 3,283 |
HU | 77 | 7,008 | 0 | 9,312 |
IE | 5,004 | 0 | 0 | 6,222 |
IT | 7,470 | 18,754 | 41,799 | 26,504 |
LT | 1,391 | 1,224 | 0 | 3,977 |
LU | 203 | 0 | 0 | 2,695 |
LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 997 |
MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 |
NL | 13,575 | 42,129 | 10,392 | 59,245 |
PL | 4,816 | 22,456 | 2,633 | 52,434 |
PT | 5,399 | 426 | 0 | 2,922 |
RO | 129 | 4,545 | 0 | 12,359 |
SE | 35,658 | 4,851 | 0 | 23,107 |
SI | 328 | 0 | 0 | 1,544 |
SK | 0 | 588 | 0 | 2,767 |
UK | 25,759 | 12,885 | 0 | 41,537 |
Table 15: Distribution of hydrogen production, demand and hydrogen imports per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Intra-EU cross-border flows emerge between different European countries due to limitations of available supplies and associated costs. Figure 14 shows these flows.
Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, which contains the Iberian and the Nordic corridor, a new main corridor emerged in the advanced infrastructure level:
- North African corridor, transporting e. g. Algerian supplies to Italy, Austria, Germany and other countries.
In addition, among the interconnected countries within the advanced infrastructure level, new interconnections with Slovakia, Hungary and Romania enable new flows to these countries from German/Czechian and Austrian hubs.
Figure 14: Grid flows* in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (GWh/y).
* Grid flows refer to simulations results and don’t intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).
In the 2030 Advanced infrastructure level assessment countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:
1. Countries that export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Bulgaria.
2. Countries that import more than they export: Poland, Czechia, Greece, Romania and Belgium.
3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Germany, Italy, Austria, France, Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Hungary.
4. Isolated countries: The United-Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland4 and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.
In comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, Italy will change from exporting role to transit country due to the availability of North African supplies. In addition, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary could overcome isolation, and Austria changed from group 2 to group 3.
While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.
4 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.
High-level results for stressful weather year
The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the stressful weather year is presented in Table 16. As detailed in Table 16, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe but it is reduced in comparison with the reference weather year and is partially compensated by increase used of SMR.
This assessment results in an approximate share of 6.1 % of curtailed hydrogen demand at European level. This represents an increase by 2 percentage points in comparison with the reference weather year.
Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance | Advanced IL |
---|---|
H2 produced via electrolysis | 265 |
H2 produced using natural gas | 241 |
H2 shipped imports | 35 |
H2 pipeline imports | 42 |
Curtailed H2 demand | 38 |
H2 demand for power production | 2 |
Total H2 demand | 620 |
Table 16: Supply and demand balance in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: TWh/y).
Figure 15: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Figure 16: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
Country | H2 Production via electrolysis | H2 Production using natural gas | H2 extra-EU imports by pipeline & ship | H2 demand |
---|---|---|---|---|
AT | 974 | 3,851 | 0 | 10,901 |
BE | 1,015 | 15,894 | 6,924 | 30,970 |
BG | 49 | 4,991 | 0 | 3,768 |
CZ | 216 | 1,625 | 0 | 6,849 |
CY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 329 |
DE | 31,443 | 44,864 | 7,847 | 154,500 |
DK | 14,678 | 0 | 0 | 13,241 |
EE | 0 | 96 | 0 | 540 |
ES | 80,821 | 14,730 | 0 | 61,128 |
FI | 37,667 | 5,813 | 0 | 34,184 |
FR | 12,999 | 20,125 | 0 | 47,735 |
GR | 260 | 3,032 | 0 | 6,482 |
HR | 109 | 3,173 | 0 | 3,283 |
HU | 95 | 7,251 | 0 | 9,312 |
IE | 4,768 | 0 | 0 | 6,222 |
IT | 6,568 | 21,666 | 42,075 | 26,504 |
LT | 1,131 | 1,224 | 0 | 3,977 |
LU | 184 | 0 | 0 | 2,695 |
LV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 997 |
MT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 284 |
NL | 12,056 | 44,465 | 15,342 | 59,027 |
PL | 4,142 | 22,456 | 3,539 | 52,283 |
PT | 4,873 | 426 | 0 | 2,922 |
RO | 170 | 4,545 | 0 | 12,359 |
SE | 27,760 | 5,514 | 0 | 23,107 |
SI | 313 | 0 | 0 | 1,544 |
SK | 0 | 588 | 0 | 2,767 |
UK | 22,263 | 15,054 | 0 | 41,537 |
Table 17: Distribution of hydrogen production, demand and hydrogen imports per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).
As shown in Figure 17, flow characteristics are the same as for the reference weather year.
Less availability of RES for electrolytic hydrogen production reduces flows from European exporting countries.
Figure 17: Grid flows* in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (GWh/y).
* Grid flows refer to simulations results and don’t intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).
3.1.2.1 IGI indicator 1: Hydrogen market clearing price spreads for reference weather year
The price formation in the DHEM is based on the merit order of hydrogen production (see section 1.2.1). Several price groups stand out, while a signification correlation is understood here as a correlation above 0.7:
1. Portugal, Spain, France-South region: Portugal and Spain are producers and net exporters of electrolytic hydrogen from RES to other countries. While the France-South region is sufficiently connected to the Iberian peninsula, price spreads appear with other groups of countries due to an internal bottleneck in France. It has a significant correlation with prices of groups 3 and 4.
2. France-Southwest region: Local undersupply and limited supply from other regions due to internal bottlenecks in France.
3. Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary Romania, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland-North region: Well interconnected region within Europe. It represents a merger between group 3 and group 4 of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment with the exception of Italy. It has significant correlation with prices in group 1 and group 4.
4. Italy: Due to its access to Algerian imports and a capacity between Italy and Austria that sometimes acts as a bottleneck, meaning that capacity at this interconnection point is utilized at its maximum potential not allowing further exports ( therefore, signalling needs for potential enhancements), Italy is an own price region. It has significant correlation with prices in group 1 and group 3.
5. Ireland, the United Kingdom, Poland-South region: Isolated (regions of) countries without significant price correlations but with average prices below 100 €/MWh.
6. Greece, Bulgaria: Countries showing significant price correlation, jointly isolated from the other European countries.
7. Slovenia, Luxembourg, Croatia, Cyprus, Malta: Isolated countries without significant price correlations and with average prices above 100 €/MWh.
The price correlations listed above are enabled by the infrastructure projects already considered in this hydrogen infrastructure level. However, price differences that led to the identification of the groups listed above are not necessarily describing an infrastructure gap. For this identification of infrastructure gaps, the thresholds of IGI indicator 1 are used.
Hydrogen market clearing price spreads
If one of the two thresholds of IGI indicator 1 is passed, a regional hydrogen infrastructure gap is assumed to be identified (see section 1.2.1). Table 18 lists the borders for which Threshold 1 and Threshold 2 were passed. In this case, both thresholds were always passed at the same borders.
Border | Threshold 1: Absolute average hourly hydrogen market clearing price spread above 4 €/MWh | Threshold 2: More than 40 days with hydrogen market clearing price spread above 20 €/MWh |
---|---|---|
DEh2 – PLh2S | 29 | 182 |
FRh2 – FRh2S | 24 | 158 |
FRh2 – FRh2SW | 58 | 322 |
FRh2S – FRh2SW | 72 | 346 |
HUh2 – HRh2 | 44 | 277 |
ITh2 – HRh2 | 41 | 260 |
NLh2 – UKh2 | 41 | 230 |
PLh2N – PLh2S | 29 | 178 |
PLh2S – CZh2 | 29 | 182 |
PLh2S – SKh2E | 29 | 182 |
ROh2 – BGh2 | 39 | 273 |
SIh2 – HRh2 | 77 | 364 |
SKh2E – PLh2S | 29 | 182 |
UKh2 – BEh2 | 41 | 230 |
UKh2 – IEh2 | 19 | 112 |
Table 18: List of borders in the advanced infrastructure level that exceed (at least one of) the thresholds defined for IGI indicator 1 in 2030.
In comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, the price spreads at the following borders decreased below the thresholds through the additional infrastructure of the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level (see Figure 19):
- Hungary: Borders with Austria, Romania, Slovakia.
- Slovakia: Borders with Austria and Czechia.
3.1.2.2 IGI indicator 2.1: Hydrogen demand curtailment for reference weather year
As explained in section 1.2.2, this IGI indicator assesses infrastructure gaps by quantifying hydrogen demand curtailments at individual nodes during the reference weather year, assuming no disruptions of infrastructures or of supply sources. It involves a multi-step simulation process integrating DHEM and DGM5 outputs to evaluate the combined curtailments across nodes. The assessment is performed for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030.
Figure 19 and Table 19 show yearly average curtailment rates of hydrogen demand in the Zone 2 nodes of different European countries. For countries where the hydrogen market is divided into several sub-zones (i. e., nodes), the curtailment rate in the different sub-zones is presented. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded in the map to indicate levels relative to the set threshold: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not above it.
5 This draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report only includes the simulation results of the DHEM.
H2 Demand Zone | Yearly average curtailment rate (%) | Threshold passed |
---|---|---|
ATh2 | 0.4 | NO |
BEh2 | 0.2 | NO |
BEh2Mo | 11.7 | YES |
BGh2 | 0.0 | NO |
CYh2 | 100.0 | YES |
CZh2 | 10.3 | YES |
DEh2 | 1.7 | YES |
DKh2 | 6.6 | YES |
EEh2 | 4.8 | YES |
ESh2 | 0.7 | YES |
FIh2 | 2.8 | YES |
FIh2N | 2.3 | YES |
FIh2S | 1.6 | YES |
FRh2 | 3.2 | YES |
FRh2S | 0.0 | NO |
FRh2SW | 13.1 | YES |
GRh2 | 33.4 | YES |
HRh2 | 0.0 | NO |
H2 Demand Zone | Yearly average curtailment rate (%) | Threshold passed |
---|---|---|
HUh2 | 7.4 | YES |
IEh2 | 19.0 | YES |
ITh2 | 0.0 | NO |
LTh2 | 11.4 | YES |
LUh2 | 92.5 | YES |
LVh2 | 8.0 | YES |
MTh2 | 100.0 | YES |
NLh2 | 0.1 | NO |
PLh2N | 7.3 | YES |
PLh2S | 59.5 | YES |
PTh2 | 5.8 | YES |
ROh2 | 18.8 | YES |
SEh2 | 0.4 | NO |
SIh2 | 77.6 | YES |
SKh2E | 5.8 | YES |
SKh2W | 5.5 | YES |
UKh2 | 13.9 | YES |
Table 19: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: %).
In the 2030 assessment of the advanced infrastructure level, hydrogen demand is curtailed in most European countries.
As explained in the description of the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level (see section 1.1.2), with limited availability of extra-EU supplies, hydrogen demand is satisfied mainly with electrolytic hydrogen production and hydrogen production from natural gas. Countries with higher availability of supply from those sources or from imports show lower curtailment rates. Most countries including strong net exporters face (weather-induced) disruptions. In comparison with IGI indicator 1, this IGI indicator focusses on the availability of supplies.
As detailed in Table 19, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in six different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:
1. Rates below 0.1 %: Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, France-South region, the Netherlands.
2. Rates between 0.1 % and 5 %: Belgium, Austria, Finland, Germany, Spain, Sweden, France, Estonia.
3. Rates between 5 % and 20 %: Denmark, Poland-North region, Hungary, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, Slovakia, France-Southwest region, Romania, the United Kingdom.
4. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Greece.
5. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Poland-South region, Luxembourg.
6. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta.
Without the infrastructure already considered in the hydrogen infrastructure level, the overall hydrogen demand curtailment would be higher.
Compared with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 1 also includes the France-South region and the Netherlands. All countries in this group do not face any hydrogen demand disruption (i. e., 0 % curtailment rates). The very low curtailment of Italy in the PCI/PMI infrastructure level (i. e., 0.1 %) is completely removed due to the additional imports from North Africa. The France-South region can benefit from privileged access to Iberian supply. The Netherlands benefit from additional import capacities. Furthermore, Bulgaria, Croatia have high shares of hydrogen produced from natural gas to cover nation demand.
Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 2 grows by France and Estonia. Among the countries of group 2, Spain, Sweden and Finland receive a significant share of their supply from national electrolytic hydrogen production, while Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany have their curtailment reduced thanks to (indirect) access to the extra-EU import capacities in North Africa unlocked in the Advanced level. Austria and Germany have (indirect) access to extra-EU import capacities. France benefits both from Iberian supply as well as imports to countries in its East, Estonia benefits from its proximity to Finland, and Austria benefits from its connections with both Germany and Italy.
Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 3 grows by the Poland-North region, Hungary, the Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, Slovakia, the France-Southwest region, and Romania due to non-PCI projects with advanced status that provide additional capacities to supply these countries/regions. Among the countries of group 3, some countries like Denmark, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Ireland, despite having significant electrolytic hydrogen production compared to the national demand, still cannot cover all demand when RES are not available. In the cases of Denmark and Portugal, being peripheric countries, their neighbouring countries (i. e., Germany and Spain) can help to mitigate hydrogen demand curtailment. Lithuania and Latvia can receive hydrogen from Finland via Estonia and from Poland to mitigate demand curtailment. Estonia and Poland will both only provide hydrogen to Lithuania and Latvia when having access to surplus hydrogen quantities. In the case of the United Kingdom and Ireland, being isolated from Europe leads to higher curtailment rates due to limited options for cross-border balancing.
Within the same group 3, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are benefiting from new interconnections. Thereby, Slovakia is the transit country to Hungary and Hungary is the transit country to Romania. While the France-Southwest region is still isolated and strictly depends on local production, the hydrogen demand curtailment is reduced compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. This is enabled by the additional hydrogen storage capacities in the France-Southwest region in the advanced infrastructure level. In addition, Czechia benefits from the fact that its western neighbours can share more hydrogen surplus.
In group 4, Greece shows a curtailment rate of 33.4 %, which can be explained by the fact that despite the new interconnections in the advanced infrastructure level in Eastern Europe, Greece and Bulgaria remained isolated and therefore their situation is not improved compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level.
Group 5 includes countries with very high curtailment rates. All the countries in this group are fully isolated and rely on national hydrogen supplies mainly produced from natural gas.
Group 6 includes only isolated countries that have hydrogen demand but no national hydrogen production assets connected to Zone 2.
In Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and Slovenia, on top of the hydrogen demand curtailments observed in Zone 2 nodes as described in the paragraphs above, hydrogen demand curtailments can be observed in Zone 1. While these curtailments are limited to a few months in Sweden and Finland, it is of relevance in every month in Ireland and reaches high levels in Denmark and Slovenia. Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, these curtailments are slightly reduced due to higher availability of electricity for electrolytic hydrogen production due to additional imports (i. e., new availability of North African imports and import terminals).
3.1.2.3 IGI indicator 2.2: Hydrogen demand curtailment for stressful weather year
Threshold 1: Average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rate above 3 %
Table 20 shows the yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in the Zone 2 nodes of various European countries for 2030, simulated under a stressful weather year. This weather scenario assumes adverse conditions, such as reduced wind and solar energy availability, which directly impacts electrolytic hydrogen production. For countries with hydrogen markets divided into multiple sub-zones (i. e., nodes), curtailment rates are depicted individually for each sub-zone on the map.
The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded to indicate levels relative to the set threshold 1: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not.
In interconnected countries, the average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in Zone 2 are more or less doubled compared to the reference weather year as less hydrogen is available during stressful weather conditions.
H2 Demand Zone | Yearly average curtailment rate (%) | Threshold passed |
---|---|---|
ATh2 | 0.4 | YES |
BEh2 | 0.2 | NO |
BEh2Mo | 20.4 | YES |
BGh2 | 0.0 | NO |
CYh2 | 100.0 | YES |
CZh2 | 19.6 | YES |
DEh2 | 2.7 | NO |
DKh2 | 12.5 | YES |
EEh2 | 10.6 | YES |
ESh2 | 1.4 | NO |
FIh2 | 6.9 | YES |
FIh2N | 6.3 | YES |
FIH2S | 6.1 | YES |
FRh2 | 6.2 | YES |
FRh2S | 0.3 | NO |
FRh2SW | 23.1 | YES |
GRh2 | 33.6 | YES |
HRh2 | 0.0 | NO |
HUh2 | 14.4 | YES |
IEh2 | 23.7 | YES |
ITh2 | 0.0 | NO |
LTh2 | 19.6 | YES |
LUh2 | 93.2 | YES |
LVh2 | 16.7 | YES |
MTh2 | 100.0 | YES |
NLh2 | 0.1 | NO |
PLh2N | 13.0 | YES |
PLh2S | 65.2 | YES |
PTh2 | 9.1 | YES |
ROh2 | 32.1 | YES |
SEh2 | 3.6 | YES |
SIh2 | 78.8 | YES |
SKh2E | 14.2 | YES |
SKh2W | 12.9 | YES |
UKh2 | 20.3 | YES |
Table 20: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: %).
As detailed in Table 20, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:
1. Rates below 3 %: Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Germany, Spain France-South region.
2. Rates between 3 % and 20 %: Sweden, France, Denmark, Finland, Poland-North region, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal, Czechia, Slovakia.
3. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Belgium-Mons region, France-Southwest region, Greece Ireland, Romania, the United Kingdom.
4. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Poland-South region, Luxembourg.
5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta. Compared with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 1 grows by Germany and Austria, reducing these countries’ hydrogen demand curtailment below the threshold of IGI indicator 2.2.
Threshold 2: hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 5 % for at least one month per year
All the countries and regions that exceed threshold 1 also exceeded threshold 2.
3.2 Comparison between PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and advanced infrastructure level
3.2.1 Maximum utilisation of interconnections
Table 21 displays the maximum utilisation rates of hydrogen interconnections for both hydrogen infrastructure levels in 2030 for the reference weather year. Table 22 shows this information for the stressful weather year.
As stated in section 1.1, some countries are completely isolated from the hydrogen infrastructure:
- Countries and regions that are isolated in both hydrogen infrastructure levels: Slovenia, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Malta, France-Southwest region, Poland-South region, Luxembourg, Bulgaria and Greece are interconnected with each other but isolated from the main backbone.
- Countries that are only isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level: Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bosnia, Croatia and Poland-North region are interconnected with each other in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level but isolated from the main backbone.
When interpreting the tables, the strategic dimensioning of interconnections becomes more evident when also considering the data for 2040 as presented in section 4.2.1. As hydrogen pipelines have significant economies of scale, one early investment with a large pipeline diameter can represent an anticipatory investment.
Interconnection | Stated direction | Reverse direction | Comments | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PCI/PMI IL | ADV IL | PCI/PMI IL | ADV IL | ||
ATh2 DEh2 | 60 | 100 | 48 | 48 | As DZ supply is added in the ADV IL, flows from AT to DE increase as AT has more access to North African H2 through Italy |
ATh2 IB-ITh2 | 44 | 9 | 63 | 100 | As DZ supply is added in the ADV IL, the max. utilisation rate is reached. |
ATh2 IB-SKh2W | 40 | 0 | As no UA supply is available, AT supplies SK. | ||
BAh2 HRh2 | 0 | 0 | The low utilisation is caused by low hydrogen supply to these jointly isolated countries, so BA and HR always need hydrogen supply themselves if the other country needs it. | ||
BEh2 DEh2 | 85 | 85 | 80 | 80 | With additional supply options in ADV IL, DE’s dependence on BE’s supplies decreases |
BEH2Mo FRh2Va | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | The flow direction is from FR to BE. |
BEh2 NLh2 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | The flow direction is from NL to BE. |
BGh2 GRh2 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | The low utilization is caused by the isolation of these countries along with the relatively low supply of hydrogen |
CZh2 DEh2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | The flow direction is from DE to CZ as no UA supply is available. |
DEh2 DKh2 | 38 | 39 | 67 | 67 | |
DEh2 FRh2 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | |
DEh2 NLh2 | 59 | 30 | 73 | 56 | With additional supply options in ADV IL, the offered import flexibilities reduce max. utilisation. |
DEh2 PLh2N | 100 | 0 | The flow direction is from DE to PL. | ||
DEh2 PLh2nbc | 100 | 76 | 3 | 0 | The flow direction is from DE to PL. New terminal in PL and new connection from DE to PL (supplied by new supply options) in ADV IL reduce max. utilisation. |
DEh2ba DEh2 | 100 | ||||
DEh2bp DEh2ba | 0 | ||||
EEh2 FIh2S | 46 | 77 | 6 | 6 | New terminal in PL and new connection from DE to PL (supplied by new supply options) in ADV IL increase max. utilisation. |
EEh2 LVh2 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 78 | With additional supply options and connection from DE to PL in ADV IL West of LV, max. utilisation from LV to EE can be increased. |
ESh2 FRh2S | 95 | 95 | 0 | 83 | Capacity from ES to FR-South would be a bottleneck if FR-South to FR was not already restricting flows. |
ESh2 PTh2 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 22 | |
FIh2 FIh2Al | 26 | 17 | 10 | 10 | |
FIh2 FIh2N | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Very high capacities set in the model as this arc is not representing a bottleneck. |
FIh2 FIh2S | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | Very high capacities set in the model as this arc is not representing a bottleneck. |
FIh2Al DEh2 | 71 | 60 | Flow direction is from FI to DE. | ||
FIh2Al SEh2 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 15 | |
FIh2N SEh2 | 23 | 23 | 10 | 21 | |
FRh2 FRh2S | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | Capacity from FR-South to FR is a bottleneck that limits supplies from ES. |
FRh2 FRh2Va | 15 | 15 | 7 | 7 | |
HUh2 IB-SKh2C | 0 | 57 | Flow direction is SK to HU. The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe, allowing SK to transit more hydrogen to HU and downstream countries which remain having HCR. | ||
HUh2 ROh2 | 44 | 0 | Flow direction is HU to RO. The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe, allowing HU to transit more hydrogen to RO which remains having high HCR. | ||
IB-ITh2 ITh2 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 84 | |
IB-SKh2C SKh2E | 3 | 0 | The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR. | ||
IB-SKh2C SKh2W | 46 | 42 | The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR. | ||
IB-SKh2E SKh2E | 0 | 0 | The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR. | ||
IB-SKh2W CZh2 | 15 | SK supplies hydrogen received from AT to CZ. | |||
IB-SKh2W SKh2W | 40 | 0 | The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR. | ||
LTh2 LVh2 | 50 | 81 | 4 | 4 | With additional supply options and connection from DE to PL in ADV IL West of LT, max. utilisation from LT to LV can be increased. |
LTh2 PLh2nbc | 3 | 0 | 52 | 88 | With additional supply options and connection from DE to PL in ADV IL West of LT, max. utilisation from PL to LT can be increased. |
PLh2nbc PLh2N | 54 | 23 | New terminal in PL-North and new connection from DE to PL (supplied by new supply options) in ADV IL reduce max. utilisation. | ||
DEh2bp DEh2 | 100 | Allows import through DEbp terminal in ADV IL. | |||
DZh2 ITh2 | 26 | The max. utilisation is limited by the hydrogen supply potential of DZ as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. | |||
LH2_Tk_BE BEh2 | 100 | 100 | In PCI/PMI IL, terminal capacities are bottleneck for hydrogen imports as not reaching supply potentials as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. Bottleneck is lifted in ADV IL. | ||
LH2_Tk_DE DEh2 | 100 | 100 | In PCI/PMI IL, terminal capacities are bottleneck for hydrogen imports as not reaching supply potentials as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. Bottleneck is lifted in ADV IL. | ||
LH2_Tk_DEbp DEh2bp | 0 | 100 | New connection allows utilisation of DEbp terminal in ADV IL. | ||
LH2_Tk_NL NLh2 | 100 | 100 | In PCI/PMI IL, terminal capacities are bottleneck for hydrogen imports as not reaching supply potentials as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. Bottleneck is lifted in ADV IL. | ||
LH2_Tk_PLN PLh2N | 100 | New terminal in ADV IL. |
Table 21: Maximum utilisation rates of interconnections in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year (unit: %).
Interconnection | Stated direction | Reverse direction | Comments | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PCI/PMI IL | ADV IL | PCI/PMI IL | ADV IL | ||
ATh2 DEh2 | 60 | 100 | 48 | 14 | |
ATh2 IB-ITh2 | 44 | 0 | 64 | 100 | |
ATh2 IB-SKh2W | 52 | 100 | |||
BAh2 HRh2 | 0 | 0 | |||
BEh2 DEh2 | 85 | 85 | 80 | 80 | |
BEH2Mo FRh2Va | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 | |
BEh2 NLh2 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 100 | |
BGh2 GRh2 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 8 | |
CZh2 DEh2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 | |
DEh2 DKh2 | 39 | 39 | 66 | 57 | |
DEh2 FRh2 | 95 | 80 | 100 | 98 | |
DEh2 NLh2 | 58 | 31 | 73 | 56 | |
DEh2 PLh2N | 100 | 100 | 64 | ||
DEh2 PLh2nbc | 100 | 100 | 3 | 0 | Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from DE to PL to decrease HCR in the Baltics. |
DEh2ba DEh2 | 0 | ||||
DEh2bp DEh2ba | 100 | ||||
EEh2 FIh2S | 46 | 83 | 6 | 6 | Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from EE to FI to decrease HCR in the Baltics. |
EEh2 LVh2 | 5 | 5 | 47 | 84 | Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from LV to EE to decrease HCR in the Baltics. |
ESh2 FRh2S | 95 | 95 | 83 | 83 | Dependence of Iberian hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from FR to ES to decrease HCR in ES and PT. |
ESh2 PTh2 | 10 | 10 | 22 | 22 | |
FIh2 FIh2Al | 26 | 17 | 10 | 6 | |
FIh2 FIh2N | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
FIh2 FIh2S | 0 | 0.2 | 1 | 0.4 | |
FIh2Al DEh2 | 70 | 61 | |||
FIh2Al SEh2 | 0 | 7 | 15 | 16 | |
FIh2N SEh2 | 23 | 23 | 29 | 29 | |
FRh2 FRh2S | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | |
FRh2 FRh2Va | 15 | 15 | 7 | 7 | |
HUh2 IB-SKh2C | 0 | 51 | |||
HUh2 ROh2 | 44 | 0 | |||
IB-ITh2 ITh2 | 64 | 0 | 60 | 84 | |
IB-SKh2C SKh2E | 3 | 0 | |||
IB-SKh2C SKh2W | 0 | 38 | |||
IB-SKh2E SKh2E | 0 | 0 | |||
IB-SKh2W CZh2 | 15 | ||||
IB-SKh2W SKh2W | 42 | 0 | |||
LTh2 LVh2 | 50 | 87 | 4 | 4 | Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from LT to LV to decrease HCR in the Baltics. |
LTh2 PLh2nbc | 3 | 0 | 52 | 88 | Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from PL to LT to decrease HCR in the Baltics. |
PLh2nbc PLh2N | 54 | 23 | |||
DEh2bp DEh2 | 100 | ||||
DZh2 ITh2 | 26 | ||||
LH2_Tk_BE BEh2 | 100 | 100 | |||
LH2_Tk_DE DEh2 | 100 | 100 | |||
LH2_Tk_DEbp DEh2bp | 0 | 100 | |||
LH2_Tk_NL NLh2 | 100 | 100 | |||
LH2_Tk_PLN PLh2N | 100 |
Table 22: Maximum utilisation rates of interconnections in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the stressful weather year (unit: %).
3.2.2 Analysis with hypothetical infrastructure approach
This section will be produced after the public consultation of the TYNDP 2024 Infrastructure Gaps Identification report in line with the methodology described by steps 2 to 3 in section 6 of the TYNDP 2024 Annex D2.
3.2.3 Identification of projects that solved or mitigated infrastructure gaps
Solved infrastructure gaps in Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level compared to PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level
The additional projects of the advanced infrastructure level could solve the following indications of regional hydrogen infrastructure gaps:
- Borders as captured by IGI indicator 1: Hungary-Austria, Hungary-Romania, Hungary-Slovakia, Slovakia-Austria, Slovakia-Czechia.
- Countries and regions as captured by IGI indicator 2.1: France-South region, the Netherlands.
- Countries and regions as captured by IGI indicator 2.2: Austria, Germany.
Nevertheless, not all IGI indicators could be solved from a regional perspective even if the advanced hydrogen projects provide benefits.
Identification of advanced, non-PCI/PMI projects responsible for solving hydrogen infrastructure gaps by addressing hydrogen infrastructure bottlenecks
The following advanced, non-PCI/PMI projects contributed to mitigate the identified infrastructure gaps in the 2030 assessment:
- Pipeline imports
- North African hydrogen corridor to Italy (North Africa hydrogen corridor)
- Intra-EU connections:
- Austria to Slovakia (Slovak Hydrogen Backbone)
- Netherlands to Germany (H2Coastlink, IP Elten/Zevenaar – Cologne, Hyperlink and H2ercules Network North-West)
- Germany to Poland (Pomeranian Green Hydrogen Cluster)
- Slovakia to Hungary (HU/SK hydrogen corridor and SK-HU H2 corridor)
- Hungary to Romania (Giurgiu Nădlac hydrogen corridor and HU/RO hydrogen corridor)
- Import terminals
- New Ammonia terminal in Gdansk and Hydrogen Highway – Northern Section
- Increased terminal capacity in the Netherlands (Eemshaven H2)
- Hydrogen storages
- Hydrogen storage projects in Germany (RWE H2 Storage Gronau-Epe, UST Hydrogen Storage Krummhörn, RWE H2 Storage Xanten, EWE Hydrogen Storage Huntorf, EWE Hydrogen Storage Jemgum, RWE H2 Storage Staßfurt)
- Hydrogen storage project in the France-Southwest region of France (HySoW storage)
Besides the projects listed above, the projects included in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level also contribute to the solving and mitigation of infrastructure gaps.