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Picture courtesy of Reganosa

3 Assessment for 2030

This section describes the evolution of the IGI indicators for the reference weather year (i. e., 1995) and the stressful weather year (i. e., 2009) for the analysed infrastructure levels (i. e., PCI/PMI and Advanced hydrogen infrastructure levels) for the simulation year 2030.

3.1 Infrastructure Gaps Identification

In 2030, the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level’s extra-EU imports are limited to shipped imports through the PCI reception terminals in Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The overall contribution of shipped hydrogen imports are rather limited when compared to the overall EU hydrogen demand. Therefore, in this infrastructure level, European hydrogen demand is mostly met by indigenous production through electrolysis or hydrogen production using natural gas which are not enough to fully cover the hydrogen demand. Therefore, curtailed hydrogen demand is significant.

In 2030, in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level, Europe will receive imports also from North Africa contributing to the reduction of hydrogen demand curtailment via higher utilisation rates of interconnected supply corridors.

3.1.1 Assessment of PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level

High-level results for reference weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year is presented in Table 7.

As detailed in Table 7, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe. This assessment results in an approximate share of 8.3 % of hydrogen demand curtailment in Europe.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balancePCI/PMI IL
H2 produced via electrolysis310
H2 produced using natural gas229
H2 shipped imports29
H2 pipeline imports0
Curtailed H2 demand52
H2 demand for power production2
Total H2 demand620

Table 7: Supply and demand balance in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 3 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment. The countries with highest electrolytic hydrogen production are Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Germany. Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production.

This is related to the intra-country assumptions, which can be summarized as it follows:

  • Consideration of electrolytic hydrogen production from dedicated RES in Spain.
  • Consideration of dedicated electrolytic production to satisfy regional hydrogen demand within the country (i. e., Zone 1). This is the case for Austria, Spain, Finland, Croatia, Ireland, ­Sweden, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom.
  • Consideration of multiple production sub-zones within the main system of a country to reflect different geographical production areas and/or demand areas and/or storage areas stemming from internal transport bottlenecks. This is the case for Denmark, Italy, France, Finland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom.

Figure 3: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Figure 4: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT1,1303,695010,901
BE1,22615,1849,79330,970
BG404,99403,768
CZ2321,62506,849
CY000329
DE35,59341,0325,255154,829
DK17,6110013,241
EE0960540
ES89,01112,908061,128
FI46,8994,611034,184
FR16,22718,865047,735
GR2663,03106,482
HR893,19403,283
HU2437,46709,312
IE5,002006,222
IT8,13923,559026,504
LT1,4111,22403,977
LU197002,695
LV000997
MT000284
NL14,01442,07413,94359,194
PL4,81922,456052,416
PT5,45542602,922
RO7154,545012,359
SE35,9294,878023,107
SI342001,544
SK058802,767
UK25,71612,877041,537

Table 8: Distribution of hydrogen production, demand and hydrogen imports per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Intra-EU cross-border flows emerge between ­different European countries due to limitations of available supplies and associated costs. Figure 5 shows these flows.

Two main transport corridors emerge in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment, one from the Iberian Peninsula towards Germany through France and one from Nordic countries to Germany.

This result is explained by the fact that these ­corridors are connecting countries with high availability of supply with other countries where hydrogen ­supplies might be limited or more expensive.

In addition, among the interconnected countries within the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, Germany shows the highest demand and at the same time enables transport of supply to its neighbouring countries, acting as a hydrogen hub.

Figure 5: Grid flows* in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and do not intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III.

In the 2030 PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for the reference weather year, countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:

1. Countries that export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Bulgaria.

2. Countries that import more than they export: Belgium, Poland, Czechia, Greece, Lithuania.

3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

4. Isolated countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland1 and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.

While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.

1 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.

High-level results for stressful weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the stressful weather year is presented in Table 9. As detailed in Table 9, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe but it is reduced in comparison with the reference weather year.

This assessment results in an approximate share of 11.1 % of curtailed hydrogen demand at European level. This represents an increase by 3 percentage points in comparison with the reference weather year.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance PCI/PMI IL
H2 produced via electrolysis270
H2 produced using natural gas245
H2 shipped imports36
H2 pipeline imports0
Curtailed H2 demand69
H2 demand for power production2
Total H2 demand619

Table 9: Supply and demand balance in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 6 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment. The countries with highest electrolytic hydrogen production are Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Germany.

Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production. This is related to the intra-country assumptions, which is explained in section 3.1.1.

Figure 6: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Figure 7: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT9483,880010,901
BE1,02615,90512,22630,970
BG454,99203,768
CZ2121,62506,849
CY000329
DE33,14244,4956,548154,501
DK14,9890013,241
EE0960540
ES80,90214,933061,128
FI38,3175,868034,184
FR13,20520,057047,735
GR2443,03206,482
HR1013,18203,283
HU2007,46009,312
IE4,730006,222
IT7,35924,881026,504
LT1,1721,22403,977
LU173002,695
LV000997
MT000284
NL12,38444,24617,85959,020
PL4,06422,456052,271
PT4,89442602,922
RO6724,545012,359
SE28,4985,536023,107
SI302001,544
SK058802,767
UK22,19015,076041,537

Table 10: Distribution of hydrogen production per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Intra-European cross-border flows emerge between different European countries due to limitations of available supplies and associated costs. Figure 8 shows resulting yearly average flows under stressful weather conditions.

In comparison with the reference weather year, the export from countries that to a large extent base their hydrogen production on RES is reduced. This reduces the usage of the Iberian and of the Nordic corridor.

At the same time, the import ­terminals must be used to a higher extent, increasing exports of countries and regions with such ­terminals. ­Germany maintains its role as hydrogen hub. Despite the overall reduction of electrolytic ­hydrogen production, under stressful weather conditions the countries with the highest electrolytic hydrogen production follow the same distribution as in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year.

Figure 8: Grid flows* in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and don’t intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

In the 2030 PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment for the stressful weather year, countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:

1. Countries that export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, Spain, ­Portugal.

2. Countries that import more than they export: Poland, Czechia, Greece, Lithuania.

3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Germany, Austria, France, Belgium, The Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

4. Isolated countries: the United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, Switzerland2 and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.

While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.

2 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.

3.1.1.1 IGI indicator 1: Hydrogen market clearing price spreads for reference weather year

Overview: Hydrogen market clearing prices per country

Figure 9: Average of the hourly hydrogen market clearing prices per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 (unit: €/MWh).

The price formation in the DHEM is based on the merit order of hydrogen production (see section 1.2.1). Several price groups stand out, while a signification correlation is understood here as a correlation above 0.7:

1. Portugal, Spain, France-South region: ­Portugal and Spain are producers and net exporters of electrolytic hydrogen from RES to other countries. While the France-South region is sufficiently connected to the Iberian Peninsula, price spreads appear with other groups of countries due to an internal bottleneck in France. The prices in this group show a significant correlation with the prices in groups 2, 3 and 4.

2. France-Southwest region: Local undersupply and isolated from other French regions. The prices in this group show significant correlations with prices in groups 1, 3 and 4.

3. Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Italy: Well interconnected countries that as group have own import terminals and national hydrogen production and are in the centre of two main supply corridors. The prices in this group show a nearly perfect correlation with the prices in group 4 and a significant correlation with the prices in groups 1 and 2.

4. Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: Composed of net exporting countries Sweden and Finland as well as countries that are well interconnected without bottlenecks. The prices are very similar to the prices in group 3 as the bottlenecks between the two groups play a minor role. The prices in this group show a nearly perfect correlation with the prices in group 3 and a significant correlation with the prices in groups 1 and 2.

5. Ireland, the United Kingdom, Croatia, Poland-South region: Isolated (regions of) countries without significant price correlations but with average prices below 100 €/MWh.

6. Greece, Bulgaria: Countries showing significant price correlation, jointly isolated from the other European countries.

7. Slovenia, Hungary, Romania, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Slovakia, Malta: Isolated countries without significant price correlations (except for Hungary and Slovenia due to a similar national hydrogen production constellation) and with average prices above 100 €/MWh.

The price correlations listed above are enabled by the infrastructure projects already considered in this hydrogen infrastructure level. However, price differences that led to the identification of the groups listed above are not necessarily describing an infrastructure gap. For this identification of infrastructure gaps, the thresholds of IGI indicator 1 are used.

Hydrogen market clearing price spreads

If one of the two thresholds of IGI indicator 1 is passed, a regional hydrogen infrastructure gap is assumed to be identified (see section 1.2.1)

Table 11 lists the borders for which Threshold 1 and/or Threshold 2 were passed. In this case, both ­thresholds were always passed at the same ­borders.

BorderThreshold 1: Absolute average hourly hydrogen market clearing price spread above 4 €/MWhThreshold 2: More than 40 days with hydrogen market clearing price spread above 20 €/MWh
DEh2 – PLh2S26169
FRh2 – FRh2S26168
FRh2 – FRh2SW1266
FRh2S – FRh2SW1999
HUh2 – ATh232233
HUh2 – HRh280365
HUh2 – ROh2543
HUh2 – SKh2E543
ITh2 – HRh250293
NLh2 – UKh242228
PLh2N – PLh2S25167
PLh2S – CZh226169
PLh2S – SKh2E25143
SIh2 – HRh278364
SKh2E – PLh2S25143
SKh2W – ATh238266
SKh2W – CZh238266
UKh2 – BEh242228
UKh2 – IEh219111

Table 11: List of borders in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level that exceed (at least one of) the thresholds ­defined for IGI indicator 1 in 2030.

3.1.1.2 IGI indicator 2.1: Hydrogen demand curtailment for reference ­weather year

As explained in section 1.2.2, this IGI indicator assesses infrastructure gaps by quantifying hydrogen demand curtailments at individual nodes ­during the reference weather year, assuming no ­disruptions of infrastructures or of supply sources. It involves a multi-step simulation process integrating DHEM and DGM3 outputs to evaluate the combined curtailments across nodes. The assessment is performed for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030.

Figure 10 and Table 12 show yearly average ­curtailment rates of hydrogen demand in the Zone 2 nodes of different European countries. For countries where the hydrogen market is divided into several sub-zones (i. e., nodes), the curtailment rate in the different sub-zones is presented. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded in the map to indicate levels relative to the set threshold: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not above it.

3 This draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report only includes the simulation results of the DHEM.

Figure 10: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: %).

H2 Demand Zone Yearly average curtailment rate (%)Threshold passed
ATh219.1YES
BEh20.9YES
BEh2Mo24.1YES
BGh20.0NO
CYh2100.0YES
CZh227.6YES
DEh26.5YES
DKh218.5YES
EEh27.2YES
ESh21.2YES
FIh23.1YES
FIh2N2.4YES
FIH2S2.0YES
FRh27.7YES
FRh2S0.7YES
FRh2SW33.3YES
GRh233.6YES
HRh20.0NO
HUh229.0YES
IEh219.3YES
ITh20.1YES
LTh221.1YES
LUh292.7YES
LVh219.7YES
MTh2100.0YES
NLh20.7YES
PLh2N30.9YES
PLh2S59.5YES
PTh28.5YES
ROh290.9YES
SEh20.5YES
SIh276.7YES
SKh2E100.0YES
SKh2W100.0YES
UKh214.2YES

Table 12: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year and check of the threshold of IGI indicator 2.1 (unit: %).

In the 2030 assessment of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, hydrogen demand is curtailed all over Europe. However, differences in the hydrogen curtailment rates between nodes are related to the level of infrastructure development and supply availability.

As explained in the description of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level (see section 1.1 and Figure 1), with limited availability of extra-EU supplies, hydrogen demand is satisfied mainly with electrolytic hydrogen production and hydrogen production from natural gas.

Countries with higher availability of supply from those sources or from imports show lower curtailment rates. Only Bulgaria and Croatia hydrogen demand is completely undisrupted and the hydrogen demand curtailment in Italy is very low. All other countries including strong net exporters face (weather-induced) disruptions. In comparison with IGI indicator 1, this IGI indicator focusses on the availability of supplies.

As detailed in Figure 11, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in six different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 0.1 %: Bulgaria, Croatia.

2. Rates between 0.1 % and 5 %: Italy, Belgium, Finland, France-South region, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden.

3. Rates between 5 % and 20 %: France, ­Austria, Denmark, Estonia, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, ­Portugal, the United Kingdom.

4. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: ­Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, France-Southwest region, ­Hungary, Lithuania, Poland-North region, Greece.

5. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Romania, Poland-South region, Luxembourg.

6. Full curtailment of 100 %: Slovakia, Cyprus, Malta.

Without the infrastructure already considered in the hydrogen infrastructure level, the overall hydrogen demand curtailment would be higher.

All countries of group 1 have high shares of hydrogen produced from natural gas to cover national demand.

Among the countries of group 2, Spain, Sweden and Finland receive a significant share of their supply from national electrolytic hydrogen production, while Belgium, and the Netherlands, have access to extra-EU import capacities. The France-South region benefits from potential supplies from the Iberian Peninsula but also from other parts of France. At the same time, while the average demand curtailment is comparably low, all relevant nodes at certain hours of the year hit very high curtailment rates between 84 % in Spain, 89 % in Germany, and 100 % in the other nodes.

Among the countries of group 3, some countries like Denmark, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Ireland, despite having significant electrolytic hydrogen production compared to the national demand, still cannot cover all demand when RES are not available. In the case of Denmark and Portugal, being peripheric countries, their neighbouring countries (i. e., Germany and Spain) can help to mitigate demand curtailment, whereas in the case of the United Kingdom and Ireland, being isolated from Europe leads to higher curtailment rates. Among the countries of group 3, some countries such as Austria, Estonia, Germany and Latvia, despite being well interconnected, show demand curtailment mainly due to the limited availability of supplies for the EU in general that are then rather consumed closer to the location of production or import. For France, different curtailment rates are observed between the different hydrogen nodes. The France-Southwest region is the area with higher curtailment (i. e., 33.3 %) as it is isolated and strictly depends on local production. Between the other two demand nodes in France (i. e., France and France-South regions) there is 7 % of difference in the demand curtailment due to privileged access of the France-South region to supply from the Iberian Peninsula.

Among the countries of group 4, some countries like Czechia and Lithuania show high curtailment rates (i. e., 27.6 % and 21.1 %), despite being connected to Germany, in case of Czechia and other Baltic Sea countries, in case of Lithuania. This is because both countries need significant imports from their neighbouring countries to satisfy demand while the neighbouring countries at certain periods of time do not have access to surplus supplies for export. In addition, national production in Lithuania represents a higher share of the demand in comparison with the Czech Republic. Greece shows a curtailment rate of 33.3 %, which can be explained by the fact that despite being interconnected with Bulgaria, both countries are isolated from the rest of Europe (see section 1.1 and Figure 1). Lastly, the Belgium-Mons region is designed to be an individual cluster only connected to France (Valenciennes production cluster) and not interconnected to the remaining Belgian grid in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030. Due to this isolated situation, curtailment is significantly higher (i. e., 24.1 %) than in the rest of the country (i. e., 0.9 %).

Group 5 includes countries with very high curtailment rates of up to nearly 100 %. All the countries in this group are fully isolated and rely on national hydrogen supplies, mainly produced from ­natural gas. This is also the case for the Poland-South region that shows a curtailment rate of almost 60 %, whereas the Poland-North region has a curtailment rate of around 31 % due to higher hydrogen generation in that region.

Group 6 includes only isolated countries that have hydrogen demand but no national hydrogen production assets connected to Zone 2.

In Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and ­Slovenia, on top of the hydrogen demand curtailments observed in Zone 2 nodes as described in the paragraphs above, hydrogen demand curtailments can be observed in Zone 1. While these curtailments are limited to a few months in Sweden and Finland, it is of relevance in every month in Ireland and reaches up to 86 % in December in Denmark and up to 96 % in December in Slovenia.

3.1.1.3 IGI indicator 2.2: Hydrogen demand curtailment for stressful ­weather year

Threshold 1: Average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rate above 3 %

Figure 11 and Table 13 show the yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in the Zone 2 nodes of various European countries for 2030, simulated under a stressful weather year. This weather scenario assumes adverse conditions, such as reduced wind and solar energy availability, which directly impacts hydrogen production.

For countries with hydrogen markets divided into multiple sub-zones (i. e., nodes), curtailment rates are depicted individually for each sub-zone on the map. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded to indicate levels relative to the set threshold 1: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not.

Figure 11: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: %).

H2 Demand Zone Yearly average curtailment rate (%)Threshold passed
ATh223.84YES
BEh20.76NO
BEh2Mo36.64YES
BGh20NO
CYh2100YES
CZh241.74YES
DEh211.91YES
DKh226.94YES
EEh213.85YES
ESh22.33NO
FIh27.97YES
FIh2N7.71YES
FIH2S6.51YES
FRh211.94YES
FRh2S1.44NO
FRh2SW45.34YES
GRh233.94YES
HRh20.01NO
HUh229.94YES
IEh224.22YES
ITh20.1NO
LTh230.19YES
LUh293.59YES
LVh232.51YES
MTh2100YES
NLh20.57NO
PLh2N43.21YES
PLh2S65.81YES
PTh212.5YES
ROh291.4YES
SEh24.45YES
SIh279.46YES
SKh2E100YES
SKh2W100YES
UKh220.57YES

Table 13: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen ­infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year and check of threshold 1 of IGI indicator 2.2 (unit: %).

As detailed in Figure 11, countries can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 3 %: France-South region, Spain, the Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Belgium, ­Bulgaria.

2. Rates between 3 % and 20 %: Sweden, Portugal, France, France-North region, Finland, ­Estonia, Germany.

3. Rates above 20 % and below 50 %: Belgium-Mons, Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Hungary, Greece, Denmark, Czechia, Austria, Poland North.

4. Rates above 50 % and below 100 %: Slovenia, Romania, Poland South, Luxembourg.

5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Slovakia, Cyprus, Malta.

Based on Table 13, the countries that have a yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate below 3 % in the stressful weather year are Spain, France-South region, the Netherlands, Croatia, Italy, Belgium, and Bulgaria.

The second group of countries includes Sweden, Portugal, France, the France-North region, Finland, Estonia, and Germany. These nations exhibit demand curtailment rates exceeding the defined threshold 1 but remaining at or below 20 %. This trend can be attributed to the composition of the composition of their hydrogen production means. For instance, Sweden, with a demand curtailment rate of 4.95 %, leverages a substantial share of wind and hydropower, ensuring greater stability in its hydrogen supply. Finland is comparable to Sweden, while France demonstrates a 12 % demand curtailment rate, where its reliance on nuclear energy mitigates dependence on fluctuating climatic conditions, enhancing supply availability. Germany benefits from its proximity to multiple supply options as it is in the centre of the Iberian and the Nordic corridor, has own import terminals, and has access to terminals in neighbouring countries.

The third group encompasses Belgium-Mons, ­Latvia, Lithuania, Ireland, Hungary, Greece, Denmark, Czechia, and Austria. This cohort includes countries like Greece (33.94 %) and Denmark (26.94 %) alongside others such as Czechia and Ireland, which face challenges stemming from their relative isolation within the hydrogen production and distribution topology. Geographic and infrastructural isolation increases reliance on domestically produced hydrogen, particularly from RES. Furthermore, dependency on imports from a single connected country—similarly affected by climatic stress—limits the availability of external hydrogen supplies. In such cases, countries prioritize domestic needs over exports, further constraining the import options for these isolated or peripheric regions.

The fourth group contains Slovenia, Romania, Poland and Luxembourg that show annual average hydrogen demand curtailment rates that exceed 50 % but remain below 100 % under the stressful weather year. The high curtailment rate observed in Luxembourg can be primarily attributed to the absence of interconnections with the neighbouring countries in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in combination with low national hydrogen production options. In Poland, which is divided into a northern region and a southern region, the southern region experiences notably higher curtailment rates under the stressful weather year due to lower hydrogen generation in the Poland-South region than in the Poland-North region. This disparity arises also due to a lack of sufficient PCI infrastructure which, combined with intensified weather impacts, significantly limits the ability to meet hydrogen demand. Romania and Slovenia also encounter substantial curtailments. In both countries, limited infrastructure in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 results in considerable hydrogen demand curtailment, regardless of weather variability. Consequently, while weather conditions play a role, they are not the primary factor in the persistently high curtailment rates observed in these countries.

Full demand curtailment under the stressful weather year has been identified for Slovakia, Malta and Cyprus, as has been the case for the reference weather year. These countries are fully isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 and have no national hydrogen production assets connected to Zone 2.

Threshold 2: hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 5 % for at least one month per year

All the countries and regions that exceed threshold 1 also exceeded threshold 2.

3.1.2 Assessment of Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level

High-level results for reference weather year

In 2030, compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, the advanced infrastructure level considers several new infrastructures (see section 1.1.2): Besides a connection between Algeria and Italy, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are connected to Germany, Poland and Czechia instead of being isolated.

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year is presented in Table 14. As detailed in Table 14, electrolytic hydrogen ­production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe.

This assessment results in an approximate share of 4.3 % of hydrogen demand curtailment in Europe. This is a significant decrease compared to the curtailment rate of 8.3 % for the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. Thereby, electrolytic hydrogen production, hydrogen production from natural gas and imports via terminals are all slightly reduced on yearly average as Algerian supply is partially replacing these supplies due to the merit order besides decreasing the hydrogen demand curtailment.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance Advanced IL
H2 produced via electrolysis304
H2 produced using natural gas224
H2 shipped imports24
H2 pipeline imports42
Curtailed H2 demand27
H2 demand for power production2
Total H2 demand620

Table 14: Supply and demand balance in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 12 shows the hydrogen production via electrolysis in the different European countries for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in the 2030 assessment. The countries with highest electrolytic hydrogen production are Spain, Finland, Sweden, and Germany.

Some countries have more than one source of electrolytic hydrogen production. This is related to the intra-country assumptions, which is explained in section 3.1.1.

Figure 12: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Figure 13: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for ­reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT1,1323,691010,901
BE1,15215,2365,05730,970
BG464,99503,768
CZ2371,62506,849
CY000329
DE33,97741,0785,443154,844
DK16,9760013,241
EE0960540
ES88,60812,399061,128
FI46,7464,553034,184
FR15,39618,889047,735
GR2713,03106,482
HR1023,18103,283
HU777,00809,312
IE5,004006,222
IT7,47018,75441,79926,504
LT1,3911,22403,977
LU203002,695
LV000997
MT000284
NL13,57542,12910,39259,245
PL4,81622,4562,63352,434
PT5,39942602,922
RO1294,545012,359
SE35,6584,851023,107
SI328001,544
SK058802,767
UK25,75912,885041,537

Table 15: Distribution of hydrogen production, demand and hydrogen imports per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Intra-EU cross-border flows emerge between different European countries due to limitations of available supplies and associated costs. Figure 14 shows these flows.

Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, which contains the Iberian and the Nordic corridor, a new main corridor emerged in the advanced infrastructure level:

  • North African corridor, transporting e. g. Algerian supplies to Italy, Austria, Germany and other countries.

In addition, among the interconnected countries within the advanced infrastructure level, new interconnections with Slovakia, Hungary and Romania enable new flows to these countries from German/Czechian and Austrian hubs.

Figure 14: Grid flows* in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and don’t intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

In the 2030 Advanced infrastructure level assessment countries can be grouped in four different categories according to their supply-demand balance on a yearly basis:

1. Countries that export more than they import: Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Bulgaria.

2. Countries that import more than they export: Poland, Czechia, Greece, Romania and Belgium.

3. Transit countries that import more than they consume: Germany, Italy, Austria, France, Netherlands, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Hungary.

4. Isolated countries: The United-Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Slovenia, Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, ­Switzerland4 and the cluster Bulgaria-Greece.

In comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, Italy will change from exporting role to transit country due to the availability of North African supplies. In addition, Slovakia, Romania and Hungary could overcome isolation, and Austria changed from group 2 to group 3.

While on a yearly basis some countries are net exporters and some countries are net importers, net exporters may be relying on net imports during certain shorter periods of time and net importers may be providing net exports during certain shorter periods of time. This can result in bidirectional flows at interconnections. This situation is caused by the seasonality of electrolytic hydrogen production and to some extent by the seasonality of hydrogen demand.

4 IGI report does not consider hydrogen demand in Switzerland (based on TYNDP 2024 Draft Scenario report). However, there is no hydrogen infrastructure connecting Switzerland to any of its European neighbouring countries in the assessed infrastructure levels.

High-level results for stressful weather year

The overall yearly supply-demand balance for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the stressful weather year is presented in Table 16. As detailed in Table 16, electrolytic hydrogen production is the main source of hydrogen in Europe but it is reduced in comparison with the reference weather year and is partially compensated by increase used of SMR.

This assessment results in an approximate share of 6.1 % of curtailed hydrogen demand at European level. This represents an increase by 2 percentage points in comparison with the reference weather year.

Yearly hydrogen supply-demand balance Advanced IL
H2 produced via electrolysis265
H2 produced using natural gas241
H2 shipped imports35
H2 pipeline imports42
Curtailed H2 demand38
H2 demand for power production2
Total H2 demand620

Table 16: Supply and demand balance in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: TWh/y).

Figure 15: Distribution of hydrogen production via electrolysis in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Figure 16: Distribution of hydrogen production from natural gas in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

Country H2 Production
via electrolysis
H2 Production
using natural gas
H2 extra-EU imports
by pipeline & ship
H2 demand
AT9743,851010,901
BE1,01515,8946,92430,970
BG494,99103,768
CZ2161,62506,849
CY000329
DE31,44344,8647,847154,500
DK14,6780013,241
EE0960540
ES80,82114,730061,128
FI37,6675,813034,184
FR12,99920,125047,735
GR2603,03206,482
HR1093,17303,283
HU957,25109,312
IE4,768006,222
IT6,56821,66642,07526,504
LT1,1311,22403,977
LU184002,695
LV000997
MT000284
NL12,05644,46515,34259,027
PL4,14222,4563,53952,283
PT4,87342602,922
RO1704,545012,359
SE27,7605,514023,107
SI313001,544
SK058802,767
UK22,26315,054041,537

Table 17: Distribution of hydrogen production, demand and hydrogen imports per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: GWh/y).

As shown in Figure 17, flow characteristics are the same as for the reference weather year.

Less availability of RES for electrolytic hydrogen production reduces flows from European exporting countries.

Figure 17: Grid flows* in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (GWh/y).

* Grid flows refer to simulations results and don’t intend to represent how the European infrastructure is expected to evolve in the simulated years, being just outcomes of a modelling tool. The values are provided as a table in Annex II and as monthly values in Annex III).

3.1.2.1 IGI indicator 1: Hydrogen market clearing price spreads for reference weather year

Figure 18: Average of the hourly hydrogen market clearing prices per country in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 (unit: €/MWh).

The price formation in the DHEM is based on the merit order of hydrogen production (see section 1.2.1). Several price groups stand out, while a signification correlation is understood here as a correlation above 0.7:

1. Portugal, Spain, France-South region: Portugal and Spain are producers and net exporters of electrolytic hydrogen from RES to other countries. While the France-South region is sufficiently connected to the Iberian peninsula, price spreads appear with other groups of countries due to an internal bottleneck in France. It has a significant correlation with prices of groups 3 and 4.

2. France-Southwest region: Local undersupply and limited supply from other regions due to internal bottlenecks in France.

3. Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary Romania, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland-North region: Well interconnected region within Europe. It represents a merger between group 3 and group 4 of the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level assessment with the exception of Italy. It has significant ­correlation with prices in group 1 and group 4.

4. Italy: Due to its access to Algerian imports and a capacity between Italy and Austria that sometimes acts as a bottleneck, meaning that capacity at this interconnection point is utilized at its maximum potential not allowing further exports ( therefore, signalling needs for potential enhancements), Italy is an own price region. It has significant correlation with prices in group 1 and group 3.

5. Ireland, the United Kingdom, Poland-South region: Isolated (regions of) countries without significant price correlations but with average prices below 100 €/MWh.

6. Greece, Bulgaria: Countries showing significant price correlation, jointly isolated from the other European countries.

7. Slovenia, Luxembourg, Croatia, Cyprus, Malta: Isolated countries without significant price correlations and with average prices above 100 €/MWh.

The price correlations listed above are enabled by the infrastructure projects already considered in this hydrogen infrastructure level. However, price differences that led to the identification of the groups listed above are not necessarily describing an infrastructure gap. For this identification of infrastructure gaps, the thresholds of IGI indicator 1 are used.

Hydrogen market clearing price spreads

If one of the two thresholds of IGI indicator 1 is passed, a regional hydrogen infrastructure gap is assumed to be identified (see section 1.2.1). Table 18 lists the borders for which Threshold 1 and Threshold 2 were passed. In this case, both thresholds were always passed at the same borders.

BorderThreshold 1:
Absolute average hourly hydrogen market clearing price spread above 4 €/MWh
Threshold 2:
More than 40 days with hydrogen market ­clearing price spread above 20 €/MWh
DEh2 – PLh2S29182
FRh2 – FRh2S24158
FRh2 – FRh2SW58322
FRh2S – FRh2SW72346
HUh2 – HRh244277
ITh2 – HRh241260
NLh2 – UKh241230
PLh2N – PLh2S29178
PLh2S – CZh229182
PLh2S – SKh2E29182
ROh2 – BGh239273
SIh2 – HRh277364
SKh2E – PLh2S29182
UKh2 – BEh241230
UKh2 – IEh219112

Table 18: List of borders in the advanced infrastructure level that exceed (at least one of) the thresholds defined for IGI indicator 1 in 2030.

In comparison with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, the price spreads at the following borders decreased below the thresholds through the additional infrastructure of the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level (see Figure 19):

  • Hungary: Borders with Austria, Romania, Slovakia.
  • Slovakia: Borders with Austria and Czechia.

3.1.2.2 IGI indicator 2.1: Hydrogen demand curtailment for reference weather year

As explained in section 1.2.2, this IGI indicator assesses infrastructure gaps by quantifying hydrogen demand curtailments at individual nodes ­during the reference weather year, assuming no disruptions of infrastructures or of supply sources. It involves a multi-step simulation process integrating DHEM and DGM5 outputs to evaluate the combined curtailments across nodes. The assessment is ­performed for the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030.

Figure 19 and Table 19 show yearly average curtailment rates of hydrogen demand in the Zone 2 nodes of different European countries. For countries where the hydrogen market is divided into several sub-zones (i. e., nodes), the curtailment rate in the different sub-zones is presented. The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-­coded in the map to indicate levels relative to the set threshold: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not above it.

5 This draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report only includes the simulation results of the DHEM.

Figure 19: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for reference year (unit: %).

H2 Demand Zone Yearly average curtailment rate (%)Threshold passed
ATh20.4NO
BEh20.2NO
BEh2Mo11.7YES
BGh20.0NO
CYh2100.0YES
CZh210.3YES
DEh21.7YES
DKh26.6YES
EEh24.8YES
ESh20.7YES
FIh22.8YES
FIh2N2.3YES
FIh2S1.6YES
FRh23.2YES
FRh2S0.0NO
FRh2SW13.1YES
GRh233.4YES
HRh20.0NO
H2 Demand Zone Yearly average curtailment rate (%)Threshold passed
HUh27.4YES
IEh219.0YES
ITh20.0NO
LTh211.4YES
LUh292.5YES
LVh28.0YES
MTh2100.0YES
NLh20.1NO
PLh2N7.3YES
PLh2S59.5YES
PTh25.8YES
ROh218.8YES
SEh20.4NO
SIh277.6YES
SKh2E5.8YES
SKh2W5.5YES
UKh213.9YES

Table 19: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for reference weather year (unit: %).

In the 2030 assessment of the advanced infrastructure level, hydrogen demand is curtailed in most European countries.

As explained in the description of the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level (see section 1.1.2), with limited availability of extra-EU supplies, hydrogen demand is satisfied mainly with electrolytic hydrogen production and hydrogen production from natural gas. Countries with higher availability of supply from those sources or from imports show lower curtailment rates. Most countries including strong net exporters face (weather-induced) disruptions. In comparison with IGI indicator 1, this IGI indicator focusses on the availability of supplies.

As detailed in Table 19, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in six different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 0.1 %: Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, France-South region, the Netherlands.

2. Rates between 0.1 % and 5 %: Belgium, Austria, Finland, Germany, Spain, Sweden, France, Estonia.

3. Rates between 5 % and 20 %: Denmark, Poland-North region, Hungary, Ireland, ­Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, Slovakia, France-Southwest region, Romania, the United Kingdom.

4. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Greece.

5. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Poland-South region, Luxembourg.

6. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta.

Without the infrastructure already considered in the hydrogen infrastructure level, the overall hydrogen demand curtailment would be higher.

Compared with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 1 also includes the France-South region and the Netherlands. All countries in this group do not face any hydrogen demand disruption (i. e., 0 % curtailment rates). The very low curtailment of Italy in the PCI/PMI infrastructure level (i. e., 0.1 %) is completely removed due to the additional imports from North Africa. The France-South region can benefit from privileged access to Iberian supply. The Netherlands benefit from additional import capacities. Furthermore, Bulgaria, Croatia have high shares of hydrogen produced from natural gas to cover nation demand.

Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 2 grows by France and Estonia. Among the countries of group 2, Spain, Sweden and Finland receive a significant share of their supply from national electrolytic hydrogen production, while Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany have their curtailment reduced thanks to (indirect) access to the extra-EU import capacities in North Africa unlocked in the Advanced level. Austria and Germany have (indirect) access to extra-EU import capacities. France benefits both from Iberian supply as well as imports to countries in its East, Estonia benefits from its proximity to Finland, and Austria benefits from its connections with both Germany and Italy.

Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 3 grows by the Poland-North region, Hungary, the Belgium-Mons region, Czechia, Slovakia, the France-Southwest region, and Romania due to non-PCI projects with advanced status that provide additional capacities to supply these countries/regions. Among the countries of group 3, some countries like Denmark, Portugal, the United Kingdom and Ireland, despite having significant electrolytic hydrogen production compared to the national demand, still cannot cover all demand when RES are not available. In the cases of Denmark and Portugal, being peripheric countries, their neighbouring countries (i. e., Germany and Spain) can help to mitigate hydrogen demand curtailment. Lithuania and Latvia can receive hydrogen from Finland via Estonia and from Poland to mitigate demand curtailment. Estonia and Poland will both only provide hydrogen to Lithuania and Latvia when having access to surplus hydrogen quantities. In the case of the United Kingdom and Ireland, being isolated from Europe leads to higher curtailment rates due to limited options for cross-border balancing.

Within the same group 3, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania are benefiting from new interconnections. Thereby, Slovakia is the transit country to Hungary and Hungary is the transit country to Romania. While the France-Southwest region is still isolated and strictly depends on local production, the hydrogen demand curtailment is reduced compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level. This is enabled by the additional hydrogen storage capacities in the France-Southwest region in the advanced infrastructure level. In addition, Czechia benefits from the fact that its western neighbours can share more hydrogen surplus.

In group 4, Greece shows a curtailment rate of 33.4 %, which can be explained by the fact that despite the new interconnections in the advanced infrastructure level in Eastern Europe, Greece and Bulgaria remained isolated and therefore their situation is not improved compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level.

Group 5 includes countries with very high curtailment rates. All the countries in this group are fully isolated and rely on national hydrogen supplies mainly produced from natural gas.

Group 6 includes only isolated countries that have hydrogen demand but no national hydrogen production assets connected to Zone 2.

In Denmark, Finland, Ireland, Sweden, and ­Slovenia, on top of the hydrogen demand curtailments observed in Zone 2 nodes as described in the paragraphs above, hydrogen demand curtailments can be observed in Zone 1. While these curtailments are limited to a few months in Sweden and Finland, it is of relevance in every month in Ireland and reaches high levels in Denmark and Slovenia. Compared to the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, these curtailments are slightly reduced due to higher availability of electricity for electrolytic hydrogen production due to additional imports (i. e., new availability of North African imports and import ­terminals).

3.1.2.3 IGI indicator 2.2: Hydrogen demand curtailment for stressful ­weather year

Threshold 1: Average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rate above 3 %

Table 20 shows the yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in the Zone 2 nodes of various European countries for 2030, simulated under a stressful weather year. This weather scenario assumes adverse conditions, such as reduced wind and solar energy availability, which directly impacts electrolytic hydrogen production. For countries with hydrogen markets divided into multiple sub-zones (i. e., nodes), curtailment rates are depicted individually for each sub-zone on the map.

The yearly average hydrogen curtailment rates are thereby colour-coded to indicate levels relative to the set threshold 1: blue signifies curtailment above the threshold, while green represents rates that are not.

In interconnected countries, the average hydrogen demand curtailment rates in Zone 2 are more or less doubled compared to the reference weather year as less hydrogen is available during stressful weather conditions.

Figure 20: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: %).

H2 Demand Zone Yearly average curtailment rate (%)Threshold passed
ATh20.4YES
BEh20.2NO
BEh2Mo20.4YES
BGh20.0NO
CYh2100.0YES
CZh219.6YES
DEh22.7NO
DKh212.5YES
EEh210.6YES
ESh21.4NO
FIh26.9YES
FIh2N6.3YES
FIH2S6.1YES
FRh26.2YES
FRh2S0.3NO
FRh2SW23.1YES
GRh233.6YES
HRh20.0NO
HUh214.4YES
IEh223.7YES
ITh20.0NO
LTh219.6YES
LUh293.2YES
LVh216.7YES
MTh2100.0YES
NLh20.1NO
PLh2N13.0YES
PLh2S65.2YES
PTh29.1YES
ROh232.1YES
SEh23.6YES
SIh278.8YES
SKh2E14.2YES
SKh2W12.9YES
UKh220.3YES

Table 20: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country/sub-zone level in the advanced infrastructure level in 2030 for stressful weather year (unit: %).

As detailed in Table 20, (regions of) countries can be aggregated in different groups according to their average yearly hydrogen demand curtailment rates:

1. Rates below 3 %: Bulgaria, Croatia, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Germany, Spain France-South region.

2. Rates between 3 % and 20 %: Sweden, France, Denmark, Finland, Poland-North region, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Portugal, Czechia, Slovakia.

3. Rates between 20 % and 50 %: Belgium-Mons region, France-Southwest region, Greece Ireland, Romania, the United Kingdom.

4. Rates between 50 % and 100 %: Slovenia, Poland-South region, Luxembourg.

5. Full curtailment of 100 %: Cyprus, Malta. ­Compared with the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level, group 1 grows by Germany and Austria, reducing these countries’ hydrogen demand curtailment below the threshold of IGI indicator 2.2.

Threshold 2: hydrogen demand curtailment rate of more than 5 % for at least one month per year

All the countries and regions that exceed threshold 1 also exceeded threshold 2.

3.2 Comparison between PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and advanced infrastructure level

3.2.1 Maximum utilisation of interconnections

Table 21 displays the maximum utilisation rates of hydrogen interconnections for both hydrogen infrastructure levels in 2030 for the reference weather year. Table 22 shows this information for the stressful weather year.

As stated in section 1.1, some countries are completely isolated from the hydrogen infrastructure:

  • Countries and regions that are isolated in both hydrogen infrastructure levels: Slovenia, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Cyprus, Malta, France-Southwest region, Poland-South region, Luxembourg, Bulgaria and Greece are interconnected with each other but isolated from the main backbone.
  • Countries that are only isolated in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level: Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bosnia, Croatia and Poland-North region are interconnected with each other in the Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level but isolated from the main backbone.

When interpreting the tables, the strategic dimensioning of interconnections becomes more evident when also considering the data for 2040 as presented in section 4.2.1. As hydrogen pipelines have significant economies of scale, one early investment with a large pipeline diameter can represent an anticipatory investment.

InterconnectionStated directionReverse directionComments
PCI/PMI ILADV ILPCI/PMI ILADV IL
ATh2 DEh2601004848As DZ supply is added in the ADV IL, flows from AT to DE increase as AT has more access to North African H2 through Italy
ATh2 IB-ITh244963100As DZ supply is added in the ADV IL, the max. utilisation rate is reached.
ATh2 IB-SKh2W400As no UA supply is available, AT supplies SK.
BAh2 HRh200The low utilisation is caused by low hydrogen supply to these jointly isolated countries, so BA and HR always need hydrogen supply themselves if the other country needs it.
BEh2 DEh285858080With additional supply options in ADV IL, DE’s dependence on BE’s supplies decreases
BEH2Mo FRh2Va001515The flow direction is from FR to BE.
BEh2 NLh200100100The flow direction is from NL to BE.
BGh2 GRh26688The low utilization is caused by the isolation of these countries along with the relatively low supply of hydrogen
CZh2 DEh20067The flow direction is from DE to CZ as no UA supply is available.
DEh2 DKh238396767
DEh2 FRh210010010098
DEh2 NLh259307356With additional supply options in ADV IL, the offered import flexibilities reduce max. utilisation.
DEh2 PLh2N1000The flow direction is from DE to PL.
DEh2 PLh2nbc1007630The flow direction is from DE to PL. New terminal in PL and new connection from DE to PL (supplied by new supply options) in ADV IL reduce max. utilisation.
DEh2ba DEh2100
DEh2bp DEh2ba0
EEh2 FIh2S467766New terminal in PL and new connection from DE to PL (supplied by new supply options) in ADV IL increase max. utilisation.
EEh2 LVh2554778With additional supply options and connection from DE to PL in ADV IL West of LV, max. utilisation from LV to EE can be increased.
ESh2 FRh2S9595083Capacity from ES to FR-South would be a bottleneck if FR-South to FR was not already restricting flows.
ESh2 PTh2992222
FIh2 FIh2Al26171010
FIh2 FIh2N0011Very high capacities set in the model as this arc is not representing a bottleneck.
FIh2 FIh2S0.40.30.40.3Very high capacities set in the model as this arc is not representing a bottleneck.
FIh2Al DEh27160Flow direction is from FI to DE.
FIh2Al SEh2061515
FIh2N SEh223231021
FRh2 FRh2S100100100100Capacity from FR-South to FR is a bottleneck that limits supplies from ES.
FRh2 FRh2Va151577
HUh2 IB-SKh2C057Flow direction is SK to HU. The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe, allowing SK to transit more hydrogen to HU and downstream countries which remain having HCR.
HUh2 ROh2440Flow direction is HU to RO. The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe, allowing HU to transit more hydrogen to RO which remains having high HCR.
IB-ITh2 ITh2006384
IB-SKh2C SKh2E30The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR.
IB-SKh2C SKh2W4642The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR.
IB-SKh2E SKh2E00The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR.
IB-SKh2W CZh215SK supplies hydrogen received from AT to CZ.
IB-SKh2W SKh2W400The max. utilisation would be higher if there was more hydrogen supply to Europe as countries in the area remain having HCR.
LTh2 LVh2508144With additional supply options and connection from DE to PL in ADV IL West of LT, max. utilisation from LT to LV can be increased.
LTh2 PLh2nbc305288With additional supply options and connection from DE to PL in ADV IL West of LT, max. utilisation from PL to LT can be increased.
PLh2nbc PLh2N5423New terminal in PL-North and new connection from DE to PL (supplied by new supply options) in ADV IL reduce max. utilisation.
DEh2bp DEh2100Allows import through DEbp terminal in ADV IL.
DZh2 ITh226The max. utilisation is limited by the hydrogen supply potential of DZ as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios.
LH2_Tk_BE BEh2100100In PCI/PMI IL, terminal capacities are bottleneck for hydrogen imports as not reaching supply potentials as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. Bottleneck is lifted in ADV IL.
LH2_Tk_DE DEh2100100In PCI/PMI IL, terminal capacities are bottleneck for hydrogen imports as not reaching supply potentials as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. Bottleneck is lifted in ADV IL.
LH2_Tk_DEbp DEh2bp0100New connection allows utilisation of DEbp terminal in ADV IL.
LH2_Tk_NL NLh2100100In PCI/PMI IL, terminal capacities are bottleneck for hydrogen imports as not reaching supply potentials as defined in TYNDP 2024 scenarios. Bottleneck is lifted in ADV IL.
LH2_Tk_PLN PLh2N100New terminal in ADV IL.

Table 21: Maximum utilisation rates of interconnections in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and in the ­Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the reference weather year (unit: %).

InterconnectionStated directionReverse directionComments
PCI/PMI ILADV ILPCI/PMI ILADV IL
ATh2 DEh2601004814
ATh2 IB-ITh244064100
ATh2 IB-SKh2W52100
BAh2 HRh200
BEh2 DEh285858080
BEH2Mo FRh2Va001515
BEh2 NLh200100100
BGh2 GRh26688
CZh2 DEh20076
DEh2 DKh239396657
DEh2 FRh2958010098
DEh2 NLh258317356
DEh2 PLh2N10010064
DEh2 PLh2nbc10010030Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from DE to PL to decrease HCR in the Baltics.
DEh2ba DEh20
DEh2bp DEh2ba100
EEh2 FIh2S468366Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from EE to FI to decrease HCR in the Baltics.
EEh2 LVh2554784Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from LV to EE to decrease HCR in the Baltics.
ESh2 FRh2S95958383Dependence of Iberian hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from FR to ES to decrease HCR in ES and PT.
ESh2 PTh210102222
FIh2 FIh2Al2617106
FIh2 FIh2N0011
FIh2 FIh2S00.210.4
FIh2Al DEh27061
FIh2Al SEh2071516
FIh2N SEh223232929
FRh2 FRh2S100100100100
FRh2 FRh2Va151577
HUh2 IB-SKh2C051
HUh2 ROh2440
IB-ITh2 ITh26406084
IB-SKh2C SKh2E30
IB-SKh2C SKh2W038
IB-SKh2E SKh2E00
IB-SKh2W CZh215
IB-SKh2W SKh2W420
LTh2 LVh2508744Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from LT to LV to decrease HCR in the Baltics.
LTh2 PLh2nbc305288Dependence of Nordic hydrogen production on RES and lower RES availability increase max. utilisation from PL to LT to decrease HCR in the Baltics.
PLh2nbc PLh2N5423
DEh2bp DEh2100
DZh2 ITh226
LH2_Tk_BE BEh2100100
LH2_Tk_DE DEh2100100
LH2_Tk_DEbp DEh2bp0100
LH2_Tk_NL NLh2100100
LH2_Tk_PLN PLh2N100

Table 22: Maximum utilisation rates of interconnections in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level and in the ­Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for the stressful weather year (unit: %).

3.2.2 Analysis with hypothetical infrastructure approach

This section will be produced after the public consultation of the TYNDP 2024 Infrastructure Gaps Identification report in line with the methodology described by steps 2 to 3 in section 6 of the TYNDP 2024 Annex D2.

3.2.3 Identification of projects that solved or mitigated infrastructure gaps

Solved infrastructure gaps in Advanced hydrogen infrastructure level compared to PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level

The additional projects of the advanced infrastructure level could solve the following indications of regional hydrogen infrastructure gaps:

  • Borders as captured by IGI indicator 1: Hungary-Austria, Hungary-Romania, Hungary-Slovakia, Slovakia-Austria, Slovakia-Czechia.
  • Countries and regions as captured by IGI indicator 2.1: France-South region, the Netherlands.
  • Countries and regions as captured by IGI indicator 2.2: Austria, Germany.

Nevertheless, not all IGI indicators could be solved from a regional perspective even if the advanced hydrogen projects provide benefits.

Identification of advanced, non-PCI/PMI ­projects responsible for solving hydrogen ­infrastructure gaps by addressing hydrogen infrastructure bottlenecks

The following advanced, non-PCI/PMI projects contributed to mitigate the identified infrastructure gaps in the 2030 assessment:

  • Pipeline imports
    • North African hydrogen corridor to Italy (North Africa hydrogen corridor)
  • Intra-EU connections:
    • Austria to Slovakia (Slovak Hydrogen Backbone)
    • Netherlands to Germany (H2Coastlink, IP Elten/Zevenaar – Cologne, Hyperlink and H2ercules Network North-West)
    • Germany to Poland (Pomeranian Green Hydrogen Cluster)
    • Slovakia to Hungary (HU/SK hydrogen ­corridor and SK-HU H2 corridor)
    • Hungary to Romania (Giurgiu Nădlac hydrogen corridor and HU/RO hydrogen corridor)
  • Import terminals
    • New Ammonia terminal in Gdansk and Hydrogen Highway – Northern Section
    • Increased terminal capacity in the Netherlands (Eemshaven H2)
  • Hydrogen storages
    • Hydrogen storage projects in Germany (RWE H2 Storage Gronau-Epe, UST Hydrogen Storage Krummhörn, RWE H2 Storage Xanten, EWE Hydrogen Storage Huntorf, EWE Hydrogen Storage Jemgum, RWE H2 Storage Staßfurt)
    • Hydrogen storage project in the France-Southwest region of France (HySoW storage)

Besides the projects listed above, the projects included in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level also contribute to the solving and mitigation of infrastructure gaps.