The European gas system continues to play a significant role in the achievement of European energy and climate targets. Methane and hydrogen flows support the electricity sector, increasing the flexibility of the energy system and facilitating the integration of renewables, in a cost-effective, secure, and efficient way.
ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2024 presents many hydrogen and methane infrastructure projects updated according to recent market and regulatory conditions. It highlights that even if all the projects materialise, gaps still remain to reach European energy and climate goals for 2030 and 2050.
Key points of note from the TYNDP 2024
- The adoption of Regulation (EU) 2024/1789 and the revised Regulation (EU) 2022/869 (’TEN-E’ Regulation) have fundamentally changed the eligibility criteria for Projects of Common Interest (PCI) and Projects of Mutual Interest (PMI), placing hydrogen and renewable gases at the centre of EU infrastructure policy. The focus for the natural the gas sector is repurposing infrastructure to transport hydrogen and broader decarbonisation while maintaining security of gas supply, market integration, competitiveness and sustainability.
- Scenario analysis confirms that reaching 55% GHG emissions reduction by 2030 with at least 42.5% share of renewables – and net-zero by 20501 – is technically achievable but challenging in the short term. The importance of gas molecules as energy carriers is foreseen in all scenarios, where methane remains predominant in 2030 and hydrogen becomes more prominent in the long-term. The role of gas molecules, particularly methane and hydrogen, is crucial in the energy transition scenarios.
- Building on a selected target-compliant scenario, ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2024 assesses hydrogen infrastructure requirements. It concludes that, even with the most ambitious projects built, not all indicated demand in Europe can be satisfied, with infrastructure gaps still existing in both 2030 and 2040. This is the case during winter and in regions with reduced or no connections to the future European hydrogen backbone, such as South-Eastern Europe and islands.
- Importantly, reaching European energy and climate goals is only possible in practice provided that more ambitious progress on energy sector transformation would be observed compared to the current evolution, achieved by energy efficiency increase, accelerated deployment of renewables, and better energy system integration across the electricity, gas, and hydrogen markets. Should such progress not materialise in practice and in case the construction of projects is not finalised on time, this would pose serious risks to achieving the assumed targets.
1 Compared to 1990 levels
Key Message #1
ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2024 marks a step-change in integrated energy system modelling
- For the first time under the revised TEN-E Regulation, ENTSOG’s system-level assessments are based on the Dual Hydrogen Electricity Model (DHEM) developed in addition to the Dual Gas Model (DGM) – a hydrogen and methane network model, introduced in TYNDP 2022.
- On the basis of the integrated modelling approach referred to above, assessment of infrastructure needs at cross-sectoral level can now be measured. The degree of market integration can now be monitored with more precision, as well as the impact of increasing network interconnections and sector coupling. Detailed information is available in the TYNDP 2024 guidance documents2.
- Cost-benefit assessments of individual infrastructure projects are now also for the overall energy system including their associated CO₂ emissions reduction. The TYNDP 2024 guidance documents3 provide additional information about project-specific modelling.
2 Annex D2 – Hydrogen Infrastructure Gaps Identification Methodology and Annex D3 – Hydrogen and Natural Gas System Assessment Methodology, available in the download section
3 Annex D1 – Implementation Guidelines for Project-specific Cost-Benefit Analyses of Hydrogen Projects, available in the download section
Key Message #2
The ambition to develop hydrogen infrastructure accelerates
- Of 326 investments that make up ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2024, over 200 are hydrogen projects. Moreover, 33% of hydrogen projects are now included in National Development Plans (NDPs), up from 17% in TYNDP 2022. Around 80% of the 110 new investments in the 2024 cycle are hydrogen-related, double the number in TYNDP 2022.
- This evolution reflects the EU’s commitment to building a hydrogen backbone and a strong focus on connecting regions and integrating renewable energy supply.
- Hydrogen projects span transmission, storage, import terminals, electrolysers and mobility. They are grouped into two ‘infrastructure levels’, representing stages of network development. These serve as the basis for identifying infrastructure gaps and for individual project assessments.
Figure 1: Projects by commissioning year (cumulative) and by project maturity status – H2T, H2L, H2S, H2E and H2M.4
Figure 2: Distribution of electrolytic hydrogen production per country in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2040 for reference weather year (unit: GWh/y).5
4 Hydrogen project sub-categories: H2T (transmission), H2L (reception facilities), H2S (storage), H2E (electrolysers) and H2M (mobility). See the TYNDP 2024 Infrastructure Report for further details, available in the download section.
5 See the TYNDP 2024 Infrastructure Gaps Identification report for further details, available in the download section.
Key Message #3
Natural gas infrastructure continues as key-enabler of security of supply, flexibility and adequacy at the level of the interconnected energy system
- While the hydrogen sector develops, natural gas project submissions have been progressively decreasing in recent TYNDP cycles. This is also a consequence of natural gas projects no longer being eligible for PCI/PMI status, a change brought by the revised TEN-E Regulation.
- Natural gas infrastructure focus is shifting towards the repurposing of assets to hydrogen, while further supporting the transition to renewable gases and maintaining a secure energy supply. In addition, its contribution in form of flexibility for the electricity system – at peak-times or periods of low RES infeed – is projected to increase, inter alia in line with findings of the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA) 2024, recently published by ENTSO-E6. The report states that between 50 and 60 GW of new flexible gas capacity could be required by 2035, as periods of scarcity prices are expected, according to the development of new investments or life extensions of existing ones closer to this date.
- The natural gas infrastructure with methane supply can and is still expected to ensure system flexibility and supply security while renewable gas volumes continue to increase. This implies a continued, albeit evolving, role for natural gas infrastructure during the transition.
- The invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 led to a major overhaul of energy policy objectives in terms of energy security and diversification of supply. The future development of gas infrastructure must consider the ongoing decarbonisation trend and a need to phase out Russian gas by 2027, in line with the European Commission communication, Roadmap towards ending Russian energy imports, published in May 2025. Figure 3, below, shows an updated view of the European natural gas system, including external supply capacities.
6 See chapter 2.2 of European Resource Adequacy Assessment 2024/Executive Report
Figure 3: The natural gas system at a glance in January 2025
Key Message #4
Significant infrastructure gaps for hydrogen were found in 2030 and 2040
- The approach adopted in TYNDP 2024 is to assess hydrogen infrastructure gaps by the relative degree of demand curtailment, as well as by looking at price spreads between regions.
- Many regions are projected to face hydrogen demand curtailment of 4–8% by 2030 and 12–15% by 2040, even under ambitious infrastructure assumptions. Such gaps are most visible in Central and Eastern Europe, the Balkans and insular systems, as further detailed in Section 7.
- The message is clear: current investment ambitions are not sufficient on a European level to meet the projected hydrogen demand, with anticipatory planning required to reach energy and climate commitments. While they may not be fully used in 2030, anticipatory investments show high utilisation by 2040, unlocking economies of scale for hydrogen infrastructure.
Figure 4: Yearly average hydrogen demand curtailment rate at country or node level in the PCI/PMI hydrogen infrastructure level in 2030 for reference year (unit: %).7
7 See the TYNDP 2024 Infrastructure Gaps Identification report for further details, available in the download section.
Key Message #5
Growing biomethane volumes are a direct enabler of security of supply. Without it, decarbonisation would occur at a slower pace.
- Hydrogen infrastructure gaps would be higher, were it not for the increasing contribution of biomethane.
- ENTSOG’S TYNDP 2024 includes, for the first time, a biomethane progress report, as required by Regulation (EU) 2024/1789. This report monitors annual biomethane production compared to the REPowerEU target of 35 bcm by 2030.
- The report shows different investment trajectories compared to the target. Market and regulatory support is seen as key to unlock the full potential of biomethane and other renewable gases, so that their benefits – as security of supply, decarbonisation and flexibility – can materialise on time and at the desired scale.
Key Message #6
Stakeholder engagement and transparency have reached new levels in TYNDP 2024
- ENTSOG’s TYNDP 2024 applied the new, extensive stakeholder consultation and reporting requirements stipulated in the revised TEN-E Regulation. TYNDP 2024 featured five stakeholder consultations8, each with a dedicated hybrid or online workshop, and relied on the public consultation on the single-sector hydrogen cost-benefit analysis methodology for input.
- Engagement with the European Commission (EC) and the Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) also increased, with frequent informal exchanges aimed to minimise work reiteration. The increased cooperation and extended stakeholder consultation aligned with the increasingly complex process of assessing infrastructure from a cross-sector perspective and under a new methodology. As a result, the overall project timeline was impacted. Additional periods for opinion and approval by European institutions – prescribed by the revised TEN-E Regulation9 – significantly increased the duration of the TYNDP 2024 process.
- The newly-established Stakeholder Reference Group (SRG) for the joint ENTSOG and ENTSO-E Scenarios 2024 furthermore enhanced engagement and transparency.
8 1). Scenarios Storyline Report and key assumptions, 2). draft Guidelines for Project Inclusion, 3). draft Guidance Documents for TYNDP, 4). draft Hydrogen Infrastructure Gaps Identification report and 5). draft Natural Gas System Assessment report and draft Infrastructure report
9 According to the latest TEN-E revision, review and approval periods by ACER, Member States (MS) and the EC add up to a maximum of 20 months: up to 6 months for the CBA methodology, up to 6 months for the Scenarios report, up to 6 months for the IGI report and up to 2 months for the Draft TYNDP. Additional details can be found in ENTSOG’s response to the European Commission call for evidence on the EU Grids Package.