The analysis is performed for 2030 and 2040 as simulation years for the TYNDP 2024 National Trends+ scenario. It covers both hydrogen infrastructure levels. Thereby, three indicators are used to identify regional hydrogen infrastructure gaps. IGI indicator 1 and IGI indicator 2.1 thereby use a reference weather year (i. e., 1995), while IGI indicator 2.2 uses a stressful weather year (i. e., 2009). The application of these IGI indicators is explained in the following paragraphs. Additional justifications and examples are available in section 5 of TYNDP 2024 Annex D2.

The IGI indicators identify the existence of an infrastructure gap through the existence of effects of such infrastructure gap. The non-identification of a certain infrastructure gap may be related to the infrastructure considered in the infrastructure levels of the energy sectors considered in the models. The effect of this infrastructure gap is either expressed at a border for IGI indicator 1 (see section 4.1) or at a country for IGI indicators 2.1 and 2.2 (see section 4.2 and section 4.3).

The reason for an infrastructure gap is an infrastructure bottleneck. An infrastructure bottleneck is a physical congestion of the network that can be observed based on full utilization rates of all relevant transmission infrastructure during certain periods of time. As a limited cooperation mode is used among countries in situations of hydrogen scarcity (see section 3.2.4 of the TYNDP 2024 Annex D1), the dominant infrastructure bottleneck is not necessarily located at a border of the country through which the IGI indicators demonstrated the existence of an infrastructure gap (see examples in section 5 of TYNDP 2024 Annex D2).

Also, besides the dominant bottleneck, non-dominant bottlenecks may exist at other locations that only unfold their effect once the dominant bottleneck is addressed. Additionally, an infrastructure bottleneck can in principle be solved by different projects and via different routes. Therefore, the infrastructure gaps identified by the IGI indicators identify regional infrastructure gaps, as the potential solution to it is not limited to the border of IGI indicator 1 or the country of IGI indicator 2. Potential solutions may in principle involve import projects, production projects, transmission projects, and storage projects.

This IGI indicator aims at identifying hydrogen infrastructure gaps by assessing Zone 2 nodes of different countries based on differences in ­hydrogen market clearing prices between these nodes. Zone 2 nodes are areas of hydrogen production and/or storage and/or consumption within a country that are considered to be connected to the national hydrogen backbone. The hydrogen market clearing price spread is thereby based on the hourly hydrogen market clearing prices in the DHEM simulations. It is calculated for each combination of simulation year and hydrogen infrastructure level.

The hydrogen prices and flows in the DHEM are linked to the merit order of hydrogen supply options as well as hydrogen demand associated with end users’ willingness to pay for hydrogen (i. e., WTP_H2 as defined in TYNDP 2024 Annex D1). The merit order of hydrogen production has the following elements:

Especially the electrolytic hydrogen production thereby depends on the availability of RES and nuclear energy. Electrolysers that are connected to an electricity bidding zone or dedicated RES may be limited in their load factor by this availability. Also, the electricity price is subject to a merit order of electricity production as well as the end users’ willingness to pay for electricity (e. g., VoLL). The electricity price is thereby influencing the cost of electrolytic hydrogen production.

As the DHEM aims at maximising the joint market rents in the electricity sector and in the hydrogen sector, it dispatches the European electricity and hydrogen supply options in an optimised way while respecting hard constraints like production and transport capacities. Thereby, the most expensive hydrogen supply source is usually defining the hydrogen market clearing price in a perfectly interconnected area. However, in case of hydrogen undersupply, the end users are competing for this supply up to their willingness to pay for hydrogen, thereby setting the hydrogen market clearing price at this level. From this dispatch of production options result hydrogen (and electricity) flows.

If countries are well connected, they share the same hydrogen market clearing price. If countries are not connected at all, the interdependency of their hydrogen market clearing prices is limited as these prices then depend on their own hydrogen supply options and hydrogen demand. A certain correlation may still be observed, e. g., due to one or several of the following reasons:

When countries are connected but the sum of connections between them is a bottleneck during certain periods of time, the hydrogen market clearing price is the same during periods of time when the interconnection is not acting as a bottleneck and is detached when the interconnection is acting as a bottleneck. Then, a limited price correlation can be observed. The less often the bottleneck is observed and the lower the resulting price spread during these periods of detachment is, the lower is the average price spread.

To define which hydrogen market clearing price spreads are a significant indication of a hydrogen infrastructure gap, one of the following thresholds must be passed:

If there is a hydrogen market clearing price spread above one of the thresholds, this indicates an infrastructure gap for the given assumptions.

More details are provided by TYNDP 2024 Annex D1 and TYNDP 2024 Annex D2.

This IGI indicator identifies infrastructure gaps by measuring the hydrogen demand curtailments of individual nodes during the reference weather year (i. e., 1995), and without infrastructure or source disruptions. The following simulation logic is applied for each combination of simulation year and hydrogen infrastructure level:

To define which hydrogen demand curtailments are a significant indication of a hydrogen infrastructure gap, the following threshold must be passed:

If there is a hydrogen demand curtailment above the threshold, this indicates an infrastructure gap for the given assumptions.

In this draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report, the IGI indicator 2.1 is only based on the hydrogen demand curtailment from the DHEM simulations.

This IGI indicator identifies infrastructure gaps by measuring the hydrogen demand curtailments of individual nodes under stressful weather conditions (i. e., 2009).

The following simulation logic is applied for each combination of simulation year and hydrogen infrastructure level:

To define which hydrogen demand curtailments are a significant indication of a hydrogen infrastructure gap, one of the following thresholds must be passed:

If there is a hydrogen demand curtailment above one of the thresholds, this indicates an infrastructure gap for the given assumptions.

In this draft TYNDP 2024 IGI report, the IGI indicator 2.2 is only based on the hydrogen demand curtailment from the DHEM simulations.