The assessment of hydrogen infrastructure is conducted in the draft TYNDP 2024 Hydrogen Infrastructure Gaps Identification report¹, based on the hydrogen demand curtailment from the Dual Hydrogen/Electricity Model (DHEM) results, which is used to identify infrastructure gaps within the assessed infrastructure levels, for assessed years.

The results presented in this document are solely based on the Dual Gas Model (DGM) and assess the resilience of the European natural gas system to cope with various stressful events for the reference weather year (i. e., 1995) and the stressful weather year (i. e., 2009) for the analysed infrastructure levels (i. e., Low natural gas and Advanced natural gas infrastructure levels, in combination with PCI/PMI hydrogen and Advanced hydrogen infrastructure levels) for the simulated years 2030 and 2040.

The stress cases are assessed based on their ­duration: 1 day for Peak Demand (PD), 2 weeks for Cold Dunkelflaute² (CDF), and a full year for the ­reference and stressful weather years.

The resilience of the natural gas system is measured by the degree to which the respective demand can be satisfied under the stress cases mentioned. It is expressed as the share of demand that is curtailed (curtailment rate – %) or as the absolute value of unsatisfied demand (curtailed demand – CR). This indicator is calculated at country or ­balancing zone level over the full-time horizon of the TYNDP assessment. Thereby, a cooperative behaviour among all countries is assumed, i. e., the available infrastructure will be used to equalise to the extent possible the curtailment rates of the ­different countries or balancing zones.

The simulations in Dual Gas Model (DGM) are undertaken on the daily granularity. All values that refer to the energy content (e. g., GWh/d or TWh/y) are stated in terms of their Gross Calorific Value (GCV) in this System Assessment Report. For ­methane, the conversion factor from NCV to GCV is 1.11; for hydrogen, the conversion factor from NCV to GCV is 1.176.

Historically, high demand events, especially when combined with low supply or infrastructure ­conditions, have led to price increases that result in demand reductions. However, demand elasticity is influenced by various assumptions that vary from country to country.

When assessing the impact of climatic stress on gas infrastructure, demand is considered static and does not respond to potential supply deficits or price signals.

This assumption is essential for conducting a consistent assessment across different years and scenarios in the TYNDP. To ensure consistency and transparency, the level of exposure to curtailment is always expressed as a percentage of demand, assuming no reaction to the various stressful events. This can also be interpreted as the required demand reduction to prevent curtailment.

Low natural gas infrastructure level

The Low natural gas infrastructure level consists of:

Advanced natural gas infrastructure level

An Advanced natural gas infrastructure level consisting of:

Hydrogen infrastructure comprises both newly built infrastructure dedicated to hydrogen, and existing natural gas infrastructure that has been repurposed for hydrogen use. Consequently, it is essential to assess the implications of such repurposing within the natural gas infrastructure levels, particularly in the context of security of supply. The interaction between hydrogen and natural gas infrastructure introduces variability in infrastructure levels where repurposing is involved. Projects involving repurposed natural gas infrastructure can affect the availability and resilience of the natural gas network.

However, some hydrogen projects with Less-­Advanced⁵ status are excluded from the infrastructure levels considered in this analysis, as they are neither part of the Projects of Common or Mutual Interest (PCI/PMI) list nor sufficiently mature to be classified as having Advanced status⁶.

Monitoring the evolution of these projects is essential, as hydrogen initiatives can progress rapidly between TYNDP cycles and may reach a more mature status in the near future. As previously noted, this dynamic development is one of the reasons that certain projects may not be included. Numerous initiatives are currently underway and continue to evolve. In this context, repurposing existing natural gas infrastructure to transport hydrogen is expected to play a key role in developing the future European hydrogen network. A clearer assessment of the impact of hydrogen repurposing on natural gas supply security requires more comprehensive and in-depth analysis.

More details on the various infrastructure levels and the related projects are available in the TYNDP Draft 2024 Infrastructure Report⁷.